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Severe Weather Threat June 15-23

KakashiHatake2000 said:
i apologize if i was fearmongering while i hope for the best i didnt even realize i was doing that and take fearmongering from a different perspective like people who cry wolf for example not on here but other places but ill post weather related content in here ask questions etc im seeing a lot of it on x
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All good dude @KakashiHatake2000. Stay active in our community.
 
Such a bummer to see three fatalities from a tornado that really didn't hit that many structures. The homes even had basements. Either the victims weren't aware of the threat, or the tornado was just so strong being underground didn't make a difference.

I'll be interested in the rating the train car gets. It's strange contextual indicators are so taboo when they seem much more straight forward than structural ones in most cases.

While the build quality of the impacted homes appears to be severely lacking, I hope the absence of debris is considered. It suggests the homes were lofted rather than swept. It was an extraordinarily violent tornado and it should be catalogued as such.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Such a bummer to see three fatalities from a tornado that really didn't hit that many structures. The homes even had basements. Either the victims weren't aware of the threat, or the tornado was just so strong being underground didn't make a difference.

I'll be interested in the rating the train car gets. It's strange contextual indicators are so taboo when they seem much more straight forward than structural ones in most cases.

While the build quality of the impacted homes appears to be severely lacking, I hope the absence of debris is considered. It suggests the homes were lofted rather than swept. It was an extraordinarily violent tornado and it should be catalogued as such.
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I do think that one house on Rigsby’s video is of decent condition but I’m not particularly sure.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I think it performed about as expected given sustained supercell initiation. That was an upper-echelon parameter space.

Attached a couple of box-average sounding from yesterday's 18Z HRRR, I don't think I've ever before seen an environment with a 3KM EHI in the vicinity of 14-15 units (I found some point soundings with values approaching 20) that wasn't hopelessly capped. Maybe it existed on something like 4/27/11 but I wasn't looking at forecast soundings then.

I admit I was skeptical because it seems like we've seen a lot of days in recent years with conditional high-end supercell potential but the warm 700mb temps have always won until last night.
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I think I meant to say it’ll probably verify a tor MDT. I do think it was the right call to hold off on the tor MDT given how unlikely supercell initiation was.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Such a bummer to see three fatalities from a tornado that really didn't hit that many structures. The homes even had basements. Either the victims weren't aware of the threat, or the tornado was just so strong being underground didn't make a difference.

I'll be interested in the rating the train car gets. It's strange contextual indicators are so taboo when they seem much more straight forward than structural ones in most cases.

While the build quality of the impacted homes appears to be severely lacking, I hope the absence of debris is considered. It suggests the homes were lofted rather than swept. It was an extraordinarily violent tornado and it should be catalogued as such.
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Which WFO did the tornado occur in? And is that office known for being liberal/conservative with ratings? The Grinnell tornado showed us how bad NWS Goodland is, and vice-versa for the London tornado with NWS Jackson.
 
OH-IOan said:
Which WFO did the tornado occur in? And is that office known for being liberal/conservative with ratings? The Grinnell tornado showed us how bad NWS Goodland is, and vice-versa for the London tornado with NWS Jackson.
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It's in NWS Grand Forks' jurisdiction, but there hasn't been a violent tornado in North Dakota for 15 years, so it's impossible to say which way they lean. I wouldn't be surprised if the quick response survey team is called in. If it's them, they'll likely rate it on the lower end.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
It's in NWS Grand Forks' jurisdiction, but there hasn't been a violent tornado in North Dakota for 15 years, so it's impossible to say which way they lean. I wouldn't be surprised if the quick response survey team is called in. If it's them, they'll likely rate it on the lower end.
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The slabbed home looked to be completely unanchored but…
We’ll see what else is found.
 
Last EF3 tornado in North Dakota was August 27th, 2016, but I hadn't realized it had been 15 years since the last EF4 in North Dakota which was on June 17th, 2010. You actually had 2 EF4 tornadoes that day.
 
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