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Severe Weather Threat June 15-23

Schoeppeya said:
We’ve had just about all the rain we can take here in northeast Oklahoma with most of our reservoirs 15-25 feet above normal. Pretty concerned with another widespread 2-5” across the Arkansas river drainage this evening and tonight as I think we will start seeing some serious flooding issues if that pans out.
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No joke. We feel it over in NW Arkansas as well. That is a scary situation if it pans out with the Arkansas River. Are you close?
 
WesL said:
No joke. We feel it over in NW Arkansas as well. That is a scary situation if it pans out with the Arkansas River. Are you close?
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I am close but luckily on the side of the river that the elevation rises pretty quickly so I am well out of the flood plain.

My parents live in Siloam and the inch of rain they got this morning sent the wet weather creek by their house way out of its banks, it normal takes three times that much for that to happen. The ground over the entire region is just completely saturated.
 
Here's our 2pm observed sounding. Low level lapse rates are still too low, but that may increase with daytime heating. Daytime heating might also eliminate the the temperature difference between 1000 mb and 850 mb. SRH is already bonkers and effective shear is where it needs to be.
1750190562719.png
1750190508542.png
 
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