• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather Threat June 15-23

HRRR shows a lack of recovery in CAPE across most of Kansas thanks to this morning's convection. Im guessing it's probably underestimating though based on the time of year. Still tons of time for the atmosphere to recover.
 
Still only a 5% tornado risk when the RAP, NAM, and GFS have been showing these parameters since Friday. These soundings are all near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. When every single important variable is showing tornado, it doesn't really seem like a boom or bu$t situation. A few of these parameters could fail to pan out and the storms would still have strong tornado potential. Can anyone with access post what the RRFS is showing? I'd also love to hear an analysis from @andyhb, @JPWX, and/or @jiharris0220. I'm completely prepared to eat crow on this one, but it's rare to see this much consistency across all the models for so long, and the SPC still not agreeing with them. What is causing this system to immediately turn into a QLCS with low tornado potential, when such a high percentage of other systems with these parameters don't pan out that way.

Here's some RAP soundings
1750178361275.png
1750178602288.png

Here's the NAM
1750179377112.png
1750179388717.png

And here's the GFS
1750179456369.png
1750179561752.png
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Still only a 5% tornado risk when the RAP, NAM, and GFS have been showing these parameters since Friday. These soundings are all near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. When every single important variable is showing tornado, it doesn't really seem like a boom or Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency situation. A few of these parameters could fail to pan out and the storms would still have strong tornado potential. Can anyone with access post what the RRFS is showing? I'd also love to hear an analysis from @andyhb, @JPWX, and/or @jiharris0220. I'm completely prepared to eat crow on this one, but it's rare to see this much consistency across all the models for so long, and the SPC still not agreeing with them. What is causing this system to immediately turn into a QLCS with tornado potential, when such a high percentage of other systems with these parameters don't pan out that way.

Here's some RAP soundings
View attachment 44156
View attachment 44157

Here's the NAM
View attachment 44159
View attachment 44160

And here's the GFS
View attachment 44161
View attachment 44162
Click to expand...
Think storm mode will be the limiting factor on that today. We'll see if anything remains discrete but I think a cluster mode is more on the table for today.
 
TheSuckZone said:
Think storm mode will be the limiting factor on that today. We'll see if anything remains discrete but I think a cluster mode is more on the table for today.
Click to expand...
That definitely seems to be the big failure mode, but I'm just wondering why it's expected to pan out that way without some intense, discrete, and prolific supercells along the way, given the parameters in place. Is it just because that's what the models are showing, or is there some other variable I'm missing that screams "immediate MCS"? I'm mainly just curious what meteorologists are seeing that tells them it'll be a large MCS with limited supercell activity, compared to other, similar set ups that are more isolated. Is it because there's so much moisture, and dew points are practically the same as temps? That would make sense I suppose.
 
Oops, I guess the SPC's answer is in the most recent outlook
Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern.
Click to expand...

I can now see what they're talking about with the skew Ts in the soundings I just posted. The temp difference doesn't seem that extreme though, and a good percentage of soundings don't have it. I actually thought that was supposed to be a factor that helped cells remain isolated as strong updrafts form in the areas that first overcome that barrier. Especially with how steep the lapse rates are after it.

I also find it really interesting how far back most of the analogs are. I see tons of 70s, 90s, and early 2000s, but almost nothing past 2004. That tells me we haven't seen a set up like this in 20 years, and the models might have some recency bias affecting their projected mesoscale convection.
 
Last edited:
We’ve had just about all the rain we can take here in northeast Oklahoma with most of our reservoirs 15-25 feet above normal. Pretty concerned with another widespread 2-5” across the Arkansas river drainage this evening and tonight as I think we will start seeing some serious flooding issues if that pans out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top