Severe Weather Threat June 15-23

[atrainguy]

The north woods of Wisconsin have entered the picture.

 

[Kds86z]

THIS is my fav tornado photo. Funnel shape and color. The color of scenery,etc..

@KakashiHatake2000

@JPWX @UncleJuJu98 @Clancy

 

[Brice W]

THIS is my fav tornado photo. Funnel shape and color. The color of scenery,etc..

@KakashiHatake2000

Thank goodness this tornado was over open field, had this thing hit a town the damage would’ve been scary. Nonetheless, I agree this is the tornado of the decade so far. Once people post more video of this, we’ll have that much more awe over this tornado.

 

[Kds86z]

Thank goodness this tornado was over open field, had this thing hit a town the damage would’ve been scary. Nonetheless, I agree this is the tornado of the decade so far. Once people post more video of this, we’ll have that much more awe over this tornado.

So true @Brice W. Ugh I am in awe

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

i think theres a landspout in nebraska

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

hope that aaron is okay idk if it would be a serious injury or not

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

i hope that it definitely stays out there in the middle of nowhere it might also make an interesting study too

 

[joshoctober16]

The photogenic Nebraska was a hybrid tornado (red arrow area)

here are some of the parameters of that area
0-1 km BWD: 8 kts
EBWD: 35 kts
0-6 km BWD: 30 kts
ESP: 4.012
BRN: 396.3
SRH3: 121
3CAPE: 118
MLCAPE: 5574
MLCINH: -11

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 44132
The photogenic Nebraska was a hybrid tornado (red arrow area)

here are some of the parameters of that area
0-1 km BWD: 8 kts
EBWD: 35 kts
0-6 km BWD: 30 kts
ESP: 4.012
BRN: 396.3
SRH3: 121
3CAPE: 118
MLCAPE: 5574
MLCINH: -11

So what was main contributor?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

View attachment 44131

Actually looks like he was trying to re-create this one:

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I'll be shocked if there isn't at least one violent tornado tomorrow. The only question marks are going to be effective/speed sheer and low level lapse rates. Sheer might be a little too low to keep the downdrafts out of the way of the updrafts. It's about 35-40 kts on the RAP right now. If it gets up to 50 or 60 I think it'll raise the risk tremendously. It's worth noting the NAM paints an entirely different picture from the RAP in terms of CAPE, the former in the 2-4000 range and the latter showing widespread values of 6000. However, the NAM shows some of the craziest SRH you'll EVER see, and the 50-60 kts eff sheer required for violent tornadoes. It also shows a band of 8-9 LLLRs across the state.



I just don't see how these conditions could be in place and not lead to intense tornadoes. I understand the models are showing a QLCS fully forming out of thin air within an hour, but I don't see it playing out like that. I'd love if someone with more expertise could explain the variable I'm missing here. Why do so many people think there's not a very big tornado threat tomorrow? Is it an over reliance on models or something i'm missing?

 

[joshoctober16]

So what was main contributor?

when the parameters match up with everything in typical hybrid tornado on a boundary
or
landspout that forms or moves under a mesocyclone.

it seem to be very landspout ish at the very start of its life.

in other words this image might help



hard to tell with the velocity but it almost looks like the landspout formed first and the mesocyclone formed above it after.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Actually looks like he was trying to re-create this one:

View attachment 44134

My lifelong dream is to plank in front of a tornado. Planking is still a thing right?

 

[Kds86z]