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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat July 1st - 5th 2026

Kds86z said:
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They edged the Enhanced risk further south to encompass the Madison area. Interesting because latest HRRR and 3K NAM don't really seem to support it. However we are getting strong heating and there may be a boundary from the two rounds of morning storms that moved across Wisconsin a couple counties north of here.
 
The storm in Marshall County Alabama right now looks rough
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA...
SOUTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT.

* AT 859 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER LIME SPRINGS, OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRESCO,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
 
Storms have struggled to get going for the most part, other than that brief one in western Iowa.

Goes to show not to trust the 3KM NAM at long range, even if it's consistent. At least the first four consecutive runs to come in range of this afternoon/evening broke out fairly long-lived supercells across southern MN around 22-23Z.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Storms have struggled to get going for the most part, other than that brief one in western Iowa.

Goes to show not to trust the 3KM NAM at long range, even if it's consistent. At least the first four consecutive runs to come in range of this afternoon/evening broke out fairly long-lived supercells across southern MN around 22-23Z.
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Yep. SPC should've downgraded to 2% imo given the cloud cover this morning. Storms are anemic and really messy.
 
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