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Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024

The outlook fingers the possibility of upgrading to moderate later. Regardless of whether it does or does not, the emphasis is on the possibility of strong tornadoes.
A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly
organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon
and evening. Given the strength of the low-level flow and ample
forecast effective SRH, strong tornadoes appear possible.

...Southeast Louisiana into Southern Mississippi/Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle this evening through late tonight...
Have held at Enhanced Risk with this update due to uncertainty
regarding potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the squall
line, mainly after 06Z tonight. Latest guidance continues to suggest
that rich low-level moisture will attempt to rapidly advect
northward in tandem with a marine warm front this evening and
tonight as a very strong (60-70+ kt) southerly low-level jet
develops over the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Elevated showers
and thunderstorms occurring in this low-level warm advection regime
may tend to hamper the inland extent of the surface warm sector to
areas along/near the coast. Even so, both low-level and deep-layer
shear appear very favorable for organized severe convection,
including the potential for tornadoes and significant damaging
winds.

Multiple rounds of severe weather will likely occur from parts of
southeast LA into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle beginning
later this evening, and continuing through tonight into early
Tuesday morning. The potential for surface-based supercells ahead of
the cold front is still somewhat uncertain. But, if any can form and
be sustained in the low-level warm advection regime along/south of
the warm front, they would be capable of producing strong tornadoes
given effective SRH potentially exceeding 400 m2/s2. Greater
potential for scattered to numerous damaging winds, some of which
could be significant, is apparent with an intense squall line that
will likely consolidate and strengthen as it races eastward across
southern LA/MS/AL and parts of the FL Panhandle late tonight.
Multiple embedded QLCS tornadoes, some of which could be strong
given the very favorable low-level shear, are also a distinct
possibility. Observational and guidance trends will be closely
monitored across this area for signs of increasing pre-frontal
supercell potential, which may necessitate greater tornado
probabilities in a later outlook.
Click to expand...
 
Penitentes said:
The outlook fingers the possibility of upgrading to moderate later. Regardless of whether it does or does not, the emphasis is on the possibility of strong tornadoes.
Click to expand...
Yep. I would rather see them use the word “possible” instead of “likely”:oops:

Other wording I look at for them to use in Outlooks and WWs:

“A couple”
“Some”
“Several”
“Numerous” :oops::oops::oops:
 
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CST MON JAN 08 2024

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Southern Louisiana
Southern Mississippi
Southeast Texas
Southern Alabama
Florida Panhandle

* HAZARDS...
A few intense tornadoes
Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force
Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of strong/damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across parts of the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. This includes the possibility of strong tornadoes and a significant nighttime severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi into southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.

Storm Prediction Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Some things that could happen tonight based on various CAM runs:

* Tornado crosses that sprit of swampy "land" that juts out into the Gulf in far southeast Louisiana (Diamond, Port Sulphur, Empire, etc).

* Tornadic waterspout crosses Mobile Bay and slams into Fairhope or Daphne, AL
 
Yeah... that 16z HRRR run is a very disconcerting. At around 06z, ahead of the main line, a confluence band initiates a line of intense and likely tornadic supercells near Mobile Bay and proceed to track across southern Alabama into the Florida panhandle.
floop-hrrr-2024010816.refcmp_uh001h.us_se.gif
 
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OHWX97 said:
Yeah... that 16z HRRR run is a very disconcerting. At around 06z, ahead of the main line, a confluence band initiates a line of intense and likely tornadic supercells near Mobile Bay and proceeds to track across southern Alabama into the Florida panhandle.
View attachment 23008
Click to expand...
That's exactly what I was talking about almost as bad as the 00z run last night

This is what the NWS was talking about when they said they might upgrade later. If this continues to show for a few runs. I'll expect them to trigger it.
 
OHWX97 said:
Yeah... that 16z HRRR run is a very disconcerting. At around 06z, ahead of the main line, a confluence band initiates a line of intense and likely tornadic supercells near Mobile Bay and proceed to track across southern Alabama into the Florida panhandle.
Click to expand...
1704737490085.gif
Any kind of initiating mechanism for discrete OWS convection like that is a massive red flag
 
OHWX97 said:
Yeah... that 16z HRRR run is a very disconcerting. At around 06z, ahead of the main line, a confluence band initiates a line of intense and likely tornadic supercells near Mobile Bay and proceed to track across southern Alabama into the Florida panhandle.
Click to expand...
Those are trying to make a bee-line for @KevinH backyard.
 
keithGA said:
Those are trying to make a bee-line for @KevinH backyard.
Click to expand...
@keithGA: Dont do that to me ROFL!!:D

From what I have seen, I am just north of the main action and haven’t really seen discrete cells pass close to my county (Muscogee) and surrounding counties in the model runs. I am still watching what happens in Central and South Alabama as storms in those areas USUALLY travel NE towards me, BUT I am still watching.
 
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