WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
That's a nice, expansive warm sector to say the least and what month is it? SW West Virginia even gets into those 60s dews. Wild!
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Severe Weather Threat January 8-10, 2026
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Euro to me looks like the potential for multiple rounds of storms plus it has the threat lasting more into Saturday for MS into Alabama. Might also have a flash flood risk as well though not a significant threat with that as we've been mostly dry. Of course, per usual standards, it'll be nocturnal threat for MS and Alabama as well.
Safe to say 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS threw me for a loop as they now both show two sub 1000 mb SLPs one right after the other. No clue what to make of any of it.
Thats why you have a very expansive warm sector being depicted on the 12Z Euro. The first low ejects into the northeast and drags that 60s dew point tongue into Western West Virginia and 50s all the way up to western New York, but doesn’t scour it. Then it wants to form that second SLP.
There’s little to no LLJ in place over the southern area at 18z yet though on the 12Z Euro. We’ll have to see if any appreciable instability can form in that area and which way the models start trending.
Always raises some alarm bells seeing succeeding low pressure systems like this in the south.
akt1985
Member
My mom will be taking a friend from Huntsville to Nashville for an appointment on Friday. What is the weather looking like for middle Tennessee on Friday and what is the time frame for storms there?
Kds86z
Member
Kind of reminding me of a handful of disparate, super conditional threats we've had in the past. Instances where, in theory, storms could become productive with instability, but greater dynamics have pulled away, leaving a relatively meager environment for storms to really get going. That's if it actually pans out like it currently looks, which is far from certain.
Yeahhh the more I look at it the more confused I feel about it. Verbatim, 18Z GFS would be a fairly typical evening/overnight Deep South scenario with what would likely be a small expanse of meager instability that is nonetheless sufficient for spinups. But I'm not sure I buy the actual large-scale evolution with 2 lows one-after-another (it can certainly happen, but just looks funky). At the same time, GFS suggests the first low will help bring in Gulf moisture ahead of the second system, and if GFS is still doing its global underestimating moisture return and instability, then it could improve the environment out ahead of our second low.
The Euro has some even more aggressive moisture return going on. Take note - it is a good bit (6 to 12 hours) slower than the GFS. However, it also develops an LLJ over roughly the same area by 06-12Z. I'm not confident on instability at this time frame, though.
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Just because of first low being a primer, always makes me think the atmosphere will be reach with moisture, and you don't really want to see that in the winter tornado season.
Signal from cips is blowing up on the typical corridor. Relatively decent tornado percentages for the areas as well.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
A adequate sounding for brief tornadoes in S Mississippi after 21z. Some LLJ uptick is notable and instability will help. I feel like focus is gradually shifting south now. I would still watch that moisture return up north though but i am having questions if we really will see decent destabilization that far north. Winds a bit parallel to the front as they close in on MS so may be a damaging wind/tornado threat if storm mode remains persistent down there. Low level shear extends to W Central Alabama. The 18z GFS might not be the large, spatial scenario the Euro depicts but it is a closed in scenario on Mississippi/Alabama with clear damaging wind and spinup potential that is evident. Would keep weather radios on down there and i think we will see a decent shift down into these areas next outlook. I feel like even ensemble guidance is slowly shifting towards here too. I'm not sold on the northern portion due to a potential inversion that may limit storm development. Down south, we seem to have enough forcing to initiate evident by the parallel shear vectors. Quick spinup tornadoes can still be impactful so anyone in that Brookhaven-Jackson-up to Tuscaloosa vicinity needs to watch. I'm also curious if any confluence bands could develop. There may be a little chance based off a quick glance, but we'll see.
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Kds86z
Member
Thank for analysis
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
No problem
The southward shift tracks well with how the guidance is handling both destabilization and the LLJ, and it doesn’t take much buoyancy in that environment for brief tornado potential if storms can stay at least partially surface based. The parallel shear vectors still argue for a mainly QLCS driven threat, but with enough low level shear in place for embedded spin ups.
Farther north still bears watching from a moisture standpoint, but the inversion concern is hard to ignore and could cap how much of the kinematic potential actually gets realized there. MS into AL looks like the cleaner overlap right now, especially if any localized convergence or pre-frontal features can enhance ascent. The next few runs should clarify how narrow or robust that corridor ends up being.
Farther north still bears watching from a moisture standpoint, but the inversion concern is hard to ignore and could cap how much of the kinematic potential actually gets realized there. MS into AL looks like the cleaner overlap right now, especially if any localized convergence or pre-frontal features can enhance ascent. The next few runs should clarify how narrow or robust that corridor ends up being.
Worth noting the NAM is just starting to get into range and it's looking very bullish (what else is new) with a 990 mb low and >200 CAPE stretching all the way up to to the UP of Michigan.
The 18Z Euro sure isn't messing around either.
And when you compare the Ensemble Max Supercell Composite, with the mean Supercell Composite, you'll see there's barely any agreement between members and location is still completely up in the air.
The 18Z Euro sure isn't messing around either.
And when you compare the Ensemble Max Supercell Composite, with the mean Supercell Composite, you'll see there's barely any agreement between members and location is still completely up in the air.
N0mz
Member
I think I agree with models starting to show sub 1k lows. Very potent jet for there not to be some decent cyclogenesis. Not perfectly shaped but still very strong.
00Z GFS and GEFS have trended up significantly. Here's updated graphics from my last post.
GFS is showing 1500 CAPE in Louisiana and Mississippi now
GFS is showing 1500 CAPE in Louisiana and Mississippi now