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Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

UncleJuJu98 said:
Still remember the march 3rd 2023 event the night prior it went heckin chonkers forecasting the next day with supercell printer after not doing it the entire time the hrrr had it in view. And then blipped away. Kindve similar setup.

Of course there wasn't a bunch of supercells with tornadoes but SPC went with a hatched 10% if I remember correctly

May have been another one but similar in showing no rooted storms and then going insane lol

So I'm waiting for that one run of the HRRR to go stupid lol
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They went with a 10% hatched, though it was TN northward actually. Most tornadoes actually occurred up north, in the same area that there may be a cold-core setup tomorrow.
1704983408369.png
 
Clancy said:
They went with a 10% hatched, though it was TN northward actually. Most tornadoes actually occurred up north, in the same area that there may be a cold-core setup tomorrow.
View attachment 23260
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Instead of johnny on the spot; it's Clancy on the spot. Spitting cold hard facts haha

Maybe that 10% hatched this event should be in the cold core area lol
 
The 12z HRRR definitely isn't mind-blowing, and it makes the entire event questionable and iffy. To me, the area of most concern is the circled area in my picture below - dewpoints there are (at least in this run) 68-71 degrees with some instability and forcing to possibly work with. But it's still a crap shoot.




1704985649238.png
 
wx_guy said:
The 12z HRRR definitely isn't mind-blowing, and it makes the entire event questionable and iffy. To me, the area of most concern is the circled area in my picture below - dewpoints there are (at least in this run) 68-71 degrees with some instability and forcing to possibly work with. But it's still a crap shoot.




View attachment 23262
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I really believe you’ll have one cell dominate and do dents, it seems like that will
be the ceiling.
 
I stole y'alls Enhanced Risk
 
JBishopwx said:
View attachment 23263
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...Southeast Friday morning into the evening...
As the primary surface low occludes over the Mid MS valley, and
associated cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across
the Southeast states. Low 60s dewpoints are expected to advect
northward just ahead of this front across southern portion of MS,
AL, GA, and the FL Panhandle, with the fast eastward-progression of
the cold front acting as a limiting factor for stronger moisture
return. This limited low-level moisture, combined with warmer
mid-level temperatures, will likely limit overall buoyancy,
tempering updraft strength and storm severity. Some stronger storms
are still possible, particularly if low-level moisture is better
than forecast, with strong kinematics supporting the potential for
some damaging convective gusts. Cell mergers could also augment
storm strength enough to produce some strong gusts. A tornado or two
is also possible if a storm can maintain discrete characteristics
and longer updraft duration. However, given the anticipated
thermodynamic profiles, the tornado threat appears lower than
previously anticipated.
Click to expand...
 
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