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Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

TH2002 said:
Who is saying the SPC should downgrade the current outlook? If the answer is "people on Twitter" I wouldn't worry about them.
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Quote of the year right here folks! LOL! Wxtwitter at it's finest.
 
wx_guy said:
First post! I watched this forum during the last event (I'm in Tallahassee), and y'all did fantastic talking about it all.

The 15z SREF for 18z on Friday looks to me like the SPC may have to nudge the risk zones further south? This parameter is the Significant Tornado Ingredients, but other parameters also carve out an upside U shaped area with the FL Panhandle and south AL and south GA in it.

The 21z is loading now, so maybe it'll show something different.

View attachment 23231
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Welcome to TalkWeather!
 
00z HRRR still sucks, mainly because of lack of convective signal, but its better than 18z. I want a larger WS and higher convective signal in future runs. Otherwise, you're gonna get a 3/3/23 type setup where you have a great environment but nothing comes out of it besides low topped thunderstorms.
 
MattPetrulli said:
00z HRRR still sucks, mainly because of lack of convective signal, but its better than 18z. I want a larger WS and higher convective signal in future runs. Otherwise, you're gonna get a 3/3/23 type setup where you have a great environment but nothing comes out of it besides low topped thunderstorms.
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And then there are the models’ biases lol

Will be interesting to watch
 
00z hrrr definitely more coverage of low 60 dews. Not seeing the instability with a drastic rise but a slowing down has helped increase the warm sector before it starts pushing into Alabama.

Tick tock tick tock WRFs.. it's almost my bedtime lol.

*Anddd they just initiated
 
JPWX said:
Do you have a link for that?
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His AI models for tornadoes did stupidly amazing yesterday so I subscribed to his service. It’s 4 dollars a month for access to HazCast but I think his StormNet AI (the real time tornado predictions) will be public for Friday’s event again.
 
In all honesty, I believe we'll that Level 3 Enhanced Risk get pulled back further west into Central MS for Friday which could include at least southern North MS counties.
 
Here’s the latest MMFS run (a proprietary model using the WRF augmented with deep learning AI) for 18z on Friday. Paints a reasonable picture I think. Could be dangerous cells too.

1704940869368.png
 
wx_guy said:

His AI models for tornadoes did stupidly amazing yesterday so I subscribed to his service. It’s 4 dollars a month for access to HazCast but I think his StormNet AI (the real time tornado predictions) will be public for Friday’s event again.
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Yeah. One of my best friends told me that his AI models predicted 17 out of the 20 tornadic storms that prompted tornado warnings like an hour before the warnings were issued.
 
wx_guy said:

His AI models for tornadoes did stupidly amazing yesterday so I subscribed to his service. It’s 4 dollars a month for access to HazCast but I think his StormNet AI (the real time tornado predictions) will be public for Friday’s event again.
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From what I've seen, Nadocast does really well. Unfortunately though, they don't have their own website and the "nadocast.com" URL is just a redirect to a certain social media website I already mentioned. Maybe if somebody pesters them enough they'll get around to building their own site though, especially since options like Wix and Weebly are available that hold your hand every step of the way...

Also, welcome to TalkWeather.
 
The WRFs were about what I expected. If anything, MS could have problems more than AL/GA. Still not sure what to think about this whole setup.
 
TH2002 said:
From what I've seen, Nadocast does really well. Unfortunately though, they don't have their own website and the "nadocast.com" URL is just a redirect to a certain social media website I already mentioned. Maybe if somebody pesters them enough they'll get around to building their own site though, especially since options like Wix and Weebly are available that hold your hand every step of the way...

Also, welcome to TalkWeather.
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Has nadocast even been updating recently? The latest post I see is March 30, 2023.
 
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