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Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

Clancy said:
Also, some are having far too bifurcated viewpoints on the event. There are serious questions about instability, moisture return and the mid-levels, but there's also a very potent system at large at a time of year when CAMs notoriously struggle. Admittedly, I was surprised by the SPC's decision to delineate an ENH zone already, but the theoretical ceiling is also pretty high.
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Good point, weve had many winter events or late fall season events that have surprised and outperformed leap and bounds what was expected. A jump in just 2-4 degrees in dewpoints in any which away (which is very reasonable) could mean a nasty supercell and a strong tornado and somebody's life being ruined.
 
First post! I watched this forum during the last event (I'm in Tallahassee), and y'all did fantastic talking about it all.

The 15z SREF for 18z on Friday looks to me like the SPC may have to nudge the risk zones further south? This parameter is the Significant Tornado Ingredients, but other parameters also carve out an upside U shaped area with the FL Panhandle and south AL and south GA in it.

The 21z is loading now, so maybe it'll show something different.

1704933398529.png
 
wx_guy said:
First post! I watched this forum during the last event (I'm in Tallahassee), and y'all did fantastic talking about it all.

The 15z HREF for 18z on Friday looks to me like the SPC may have to nudge the risk zones further south? This parameter is the Significant Tornado Ingredients, but other parameters also carve out an upside U shaped area with the FL Panhandle and south AL and south GA in it.

The 21z is loading now, so maybe it'll show something different.

View attachment 23231
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Welcome!
 
wx_guy said:
First post! I watched this forum during the last event (I'm in Tallahassee), and y'all did fantastic talking about it all.

The 15z SREF for 18z on Friday looks to me like the SPC may have to nudge the risk zones further south? This parameter is the Significant Tornado Ingredients, but other parameters also carve out an upside U shaped area with the FL Panhandle and south AL and south GA in it.

The 21z is loading now, so maybe it'll show something different.
Click to expand...
As far as SREF data goes, it seems to be slowing the system down some. As for how forecasted parameters translate into real environments, it can be complicated. I definitely think there could be a threat along the coast, but at this point, for me anyway, I have too many questions to make heads or tails of anything in a confident way. Might be a setup we'll have to sit on before getting a better picture.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
00z HRRR coming in slower
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Michael Jackson Popcorn GIF
 
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