Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

[Clancy]

Is it just me, or do these supercells look wimpy to me? They don’t seem to mature in future in later frames of this run and they have a similar appearance on the NAM run.

What gives?

In the absence of stronger modelled instability, this is the radar presentation you'll get, since the models aren't going to have them rooted to the surface. The presence of cellular activity at all is worth nothing though, especially around here in winter.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

In the absence of stronger modelled instability, this is the radar presentation you'll get, since the models aren't going to have them rooted to the surface. The presence of cellular activity at all is worth nothing though, especially around here in winter.

Man if this system slowed down by about 3-6 hours before getting to Alabama and the sun came out and baked for a bit. Yikes. Not out of the realm of possibilities but something you wouldn't want to see

 

[Clancy]

Man if this system slowed down by about 3-6 hours before getting to Alabama and the sun came out and baked for a bit. Yikes. Not out of the realm of possibilities but something you wouldn't want to see

Still coming through at proper daylight hours though, so every hour will add to potential instability. East AL will likely have the most substantial threat in the state, timing considered.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Still coming through at proper daylight hours though, so every hour will add to potential instability. East AL will likely have the most substantial threat in the state, timing considered.

True lol , I was thinking of timing for central Alabama (my neck of the woods) but it is really good timing for east Alabama and west Georgia (your neck of the woods)

 

[Gail]

Well definitely don't take it for gospel, but I'd say the best bet is to be watchful. While it doesn't necessarily look like the northern end of MS will be at the pinnacle of the threat area, models have both some discrete convection and a QLCS moving through there. They may be tempered by the timing of the event, but I wouldn't bet on that. And in the Columbus-Tupelo tornado belt, I'd never let my guard down obviously.
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One of those discrete cells is sitting right on top of me. We have the 16th anniversary of our EF-3 that destroyed our school campus today.

 

[Tanner]

I don't have Pivotal premium so I can't see many of the details but it appears the 12Z Euro precip fields depict discrete convection over AL/GA as of 18Z (noon CST) Friday. The low then deepens 8 MB in six hours, to 973mb at 00Z Saturday.

Yup. Strengthening low during and after the event is never a good sign.

 

[JPWX]

Well definitely don't take it for gospel, but I'd say the best bet is to be watchful. While it doesn't necessarily look like the northern end of MS will be at the pinnacle of the threat area, models have both some discrete convection and a QLCS moving through there. They may be tempered by the timing of the event, but I wouldn't bet on that. And in the Columbus-Tupelo tornado belt, I'd never let my guard down obviously.
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O you know it. Especially in Monroe County, MS. Dylan Hudler calls it the Monroe County Magic.

 

[Clancy]

O you know it. Especially in Monroe County, MS. Dylan Hudler calls it the Monroe County Magic.

Let's hope the magician is taking a day off on Friday.

 

[KevinH]

True lol , I was thinking of timing for central Alabama (my neck of the woods) but it is really good timing for east Alabama and west Georgia (your neck of the woods)

@Clancy lives north of ATL lol (according to profile)

 

[JPWX]

Let's hope the magician is taking a day off on Friday.

Yeah, but then of course, I live in Monroe County plus I tend to attract severe storms/tornadoes for some reason. I need to attract more snow. LOL!

 

[KevinH]

Yeah, but then of course, I live in Monroe County plus I tend to attract severe storms/tornadoes for some reason. I need to attract more snow. LOL!

Sir…. SIR!!!!

You live in N MS, the Oklahoma of the South. The whole state is a “tornado magnet” (thanks to GoF lol)

 

[Richardjacks]

Still coming through at proper daylight hours though, so every hour will add to potential instability. East AL will likely have the most substantial threat in the state, timing considered.

Daylight doesn't make that much difference this time of year, sun angle is still quite low.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

Daylight doesn't make that much difference this time of year, sun angle is still quite low.

If anything, most dangerous weather events in the winter are nocturnal

 

[MichelleH]

Looks like a pretty sharp cutoff for Alabama. The Birmingham NWS office jurisdiction and south looks to be sharply cutoff and still somewhat pinched warn sector though.

** The cutoff line appears to be right between the Huntsville and bham jurisdictions

Yes, it's in Cullman County - about over me.

 

[andyhb]

Is it just me, or do these supercells look wimpy to me? They don’t seem to mature in future in later frames of this run and they have a similar appearance on the NAM run.

What gives?

Not enough instability and very strong shear. A lot of these updrafts would likely get shredded by entrainment.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Some differences with the HRRR and WRF model 12z Friday. Raises my eyebrows a tad. Can't wait for the 00z runs of the WRF tonight.

 

[tornado examiner]

So…people are saying the spcshould downgrade Friday’s risk to slight….does anyone here agree with that?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Clancy]

Some differences with the HRRR and WRF model 12z Friday. Raises my eyebrows a tad. Can't wait for the 00z runs of the WRF tonight.

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A bit confuzzled that the ARW is more aggressive with moisture return than the HRRR. Usually the WRFs are stingy.

 

[Clancy]

Also, some are having far too bifurcated viewpoints on the event. There are serious questions about instability, moisture return and the mid-levels, but there's also a very potent system at large at a time of year when CAMs notoriously struggle. Admittedly, I was surprised by the SPC's decision to delineate an ENH zone already, but the theoretical ceiling is also pretty high.