- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
Good point. Forgot the HRRR absolutely crapped the instability forecast in the area that got daylight that day lol.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
tornado examiner
Member
- Messages
- 2,226
- Location
- texas
This event is likely to be a tornado outbreak
- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
Don't know if somebody posted the overall severe probability but here it is, nice little purple hatched splotch. 
KevinH
Member
- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
You forgot the tornado probs lol
warneagle
Member
Yeah for whatever reason the models tend to not handle cool-season thermos that well. Obviously you can’t just assume they’re wrong (<72 hours of moisture return isn’t a lot even with strong LL cyclogenesis etc.) but I also wouldn’t want to assume the threat is going to be mitigated by weak instability/moisture based on the model output.
I think the NWS forecasters’ approach of basically saying “here’s what the ceiling is based on the synoptic scale, we’ll wait until we have actual temp/dew point obs to get more specific” is prudent. Worked well the other day at least.
- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
Ain't got long before we see the first in full view of atleast Alabama and Mississippi with the HRRR. Curious to see it's first run within the time frame.
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,841
- Location
- Madison, WI
I don't have Pivotal premium so I can't see many of the details but it appears the 12Z Euro precip fields depict discrete convection over AL/GA as of 18Z (noon CST) Friday. The low then deepens 8 MB in six hours, to 973mb at 00Z Saturday.
KevinH
Member
- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,841
- Location
- Madison, WI
Yup, that's the one.
Yeah, in fact, both globals depicting discrete convection over the area Fri. afternoon.
- Messages
- 1,411
- Location
- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
Looking athe hours just before the event, the opportunity is there for a fairly large warm sector to grow and expand well north into Alabama...quite concerning given the upper flow by early afternoon.
- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
Hrrr not impressive on simulated radar in terms of supercell printing, but impressive values for south and central Alabama. Definitely can reach 1000j for a lot of Alabama and maybe higher. Hrrr shows cloud breaks off and on. So any clearing would aid in rapid destabilizion.
KevinH
Member
- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
I was just going to say this. Stop reading my mind lol
- Messages
- 2,831
- Location
- Smithville MS
KevinH
Member
- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
Is it just me, or do these supercells look wimpy to me? They don’t seem to mature in future in later frames of this run and they have a similar appearance on the NAM run.
What gives?
What gives?
Well definitely don't take it for gospel, but I'd say the best bet is to be watchful. While it doesn't necessarily look like the northern end of MS will be at the pinnacle of the threat area, models have both some discrete convection and a QLCS moving through there. They may be tempered by the timing of the event, but I wouldn't bet on that. And in the Columbus-Tupelo tornado belt, I'd never let my guard down obviously.
