• Looks like our DeLorean hit 88 miles per hour a little too hard! A recent style update went sideways, sending us back to a retro look for a bit. We've parked that faulty future theme for now while we tinker under the hood.
  • Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather Threat - Dec 29th, 2022 - Jan 1st, 2023

I think any threat during the timeframe of this thread (Friday into the weekend) would probably be near the coast and lower-end. Quality instability won't make it too far inland with this one. The next one, scheduled around next Monday or Tuesday and would soon require another thread because it's a completely separate synoptic system, may have a better shot... with a shortwave and surface low that are shifted farther northwest and the potential for a warm sector that gets farther inland. And then, it's just beyond the Euro range, but the GFS and its ensembles have been steadily hinting that the system to really watch may be the third one in the line up... toward the 5th-6th... before we have the potential to switch back to colder temperatures in the eastern United States.

I would let any talk for the 3rd system (the 5th-6th) stay in the Severe Weather 2023 thread until we get better consistency, but the SPC is already hinting at potential for severe with the system early next week (Monday the 2nd into Tuesday the 3rd). That one might require another thread soon if model consistency remains. Like CheeselandSkies mentioned above though, mid-level flow and trough orientation are pretty meridional. That should limit things to something more linear in storm mode, unless things trend lower amplitude, which is certainly possible. We would still have to watch it even if not, though, because the glancing blow type nature of the trough might mean at least some window open for discrete potential south of I-40.... but plenty of time to figure that out in the days ahead.

I'm also reasonably certain we can trim back the end date on this thread to December 31st. The entire surface reflection of the synoptic storm system is off the East Coast by 12z Sunday.
 
A little over topic but I would love to get a day in weather history thread going.
 
PRSIGTC01_gfs215F108.png
1672363090322.png
 
Afternoon AFD from Shreveport: Fairly enhanced wording in their minds attm.

FlMETxSXwAgBKje
Wow! That's very interesting but I can definitely see it.
 
Back
Top