Severe WX Severe Weather Threat April 3rd-4th, 2019 (1 Viewer)

Taylor Campbell

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Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 020630

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2019

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe threat is expected to focus across the lower Mississippi
Valley Thursday.

...Lower MS Valley...

Low-latitude short-wave trough that is expected to progress across
the southern Rockies toward the Arklatex region by 04/12z should
deamplify a bit as it ejects toward the southern Appalachians during
the overnight hours. Pronounced day2 lee trough will be dislodged
east to a position from western AR into northeast TX during the
afternoon. This boundary should serve as the focus for potential
severe thunderstorm development as surface temperatures warm into
the mid 70s near the wind shift. Prior to this scenario, early-day
low-level warm advection should focus ascent across the northern
half of the SLGT Risk region ahead of the short wave. Steep
mid-level lapse-rate plume will overspread this region early and
elevated convection that roots atop the boundary layer could produce
hail. Latest model guidance suggests thunderstorm clusters will be
the predominant mode early within the warm advection regime. Ample
shear should support the possibility for at least isolated
supercells. Per earlier reasoning, surface-based thunderstorms may
develop near/just in the wake of ejecting short wave along weakening
surface boundary. This activity would tend to spread southeast
during the evening hours as mean flow becomes more westerly.

..Darrow.. 04/02/2019
 

JayF

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LOL this one doesn't look anything like that, but early sniff of the 3K NAM suggests there could be some heavier action in S. MS Thursday evening.
 

Kory

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It isn't being talked about much, but Thursday could feature a decent tornado threat LA into Southwest MS. 2/7/17 comes to mind speaking about this.
Very similar placement of the shortwave passing through the region. Much higher instability this go around...
 

Kory

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SREF/NAM/other mesoscale guidance are progging some pretty intense values from Central LA into Southwest/South Central MS for tomorrow. It wouldn't surprise me to see an upgrade.
 

Kory

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HRRR shows multiple strong, long track UH streaks across Central and Northern LA tomorrow. Absolutely nasty parameters in place for tomorrow (this looks like one of this trending upward type of events we've seen a lot lately).
 

Austin Dawg

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HRRR shows multiple strong, long track UH streaks across Central and Northern LA tomorrow. Absolutely nasty parameters in place for tomorrow (this looks like one of this trending upward type of events we've seen a lot lately).

Kory, the NAM keeps trending for heavy storms in that area as well.
 

Kory

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Well, that mass of convection across South Louisiana killed any threat that existed today outside of the immediate Louisiana coastline. Other concerns...major training looks to occur somewhere across the I-10 corridor in Louisiana later today. Watch out if that sets up over New Orleans...
 

Lori

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Well, that mass of convection across South Louisiana killed any threat that existed today outside of the immediate Louisiana coastline. Other concerns...major training looks to occur somewhere across the I-10 corridor in Louisiana later today. Watch out if that sets up over New Orleans...


Looks like the worst storms remained off shore and are now off the Port Saint Joe area of the Panhandle

kevx_20190405_0232_BR_0.5.png
 

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