Severe Weather Threat April 1-4

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[eep]

The Illinois supercell near Round Grove that exploded for a little bit has reformed and looks healthy again.

 

[Tennie]

Janesville, WI, is now under a Tornado Warning. The supercell has a notable BWER on it, and some tight rotation.

 

[eep]

The Illinois supercell near Round Grove that exploded for a little bit has reformed and looks healthy again.

OTG near sterling.

 

[eep]

Janesville WI and Kalamazoo MI look like they're gonna drop soon.

 

[Kds86z]

Keep eye on battle creek Mi supercell turning right

 

[Kds86z]

Battlecreek again . MI storm is rotating more then any storm atm.

 

[Tennie]

Keep eye on battle creek Mi supercell turning right

It's got some intense rotation on it:



(Personally speaking, I'm hoping and praying that this is just an artifact of sidelobe/clear-air contamination!)

 

[Tennie]

There's a second area of rotation east of Vicksburg, MI, that has now been tornado-warned. It too looks to be tracking toward Battle Creek.

 

[Tennie]

Janesville, WI, is once again under a Tornado Warning. In addition, there's a Spotter Network report in that area of a funnel cloud.

 

[VultureDirge89]

I keep thinking this, and then remembering it's only April 2nd. I think compared to last year it has been lackluster, but overall it's still been a bit above average.

I'm going to catch heat for this, but I'm rapidly losing faith in the SPC's forecasts. A 10% hatched used to be a big event, with very high confidence supporting it. If the CAMs weren't showing it, we could have faith the SPC was seeing something we weren't. Now every single QLCS system is being hit with a 5-10% hatched and the established system has been flipped on its head. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The previous system was very effective and easy to understand, now it's completely different and the hypecasters are thriving off of it. At this point, I'm not going to buy into any event until they bring out the CIG 2.

I was going to say this too. 2025 was a very active season that both started early and continued to the very end of the conventional season. Tornado totals ended up well above average even though there was basically no fall season, which really says a lot. It was also the second-most active year since 2011 for both EF3+ (behind 2024) and EF4+ (tied with 2013) tornadoes.

We'll have to see how the rest of the season plays out, but I think if people didn't have 2025 fresh in their memories they'd be saying this season is off to a pretty active start. March had two pretty solid outbreaks and the tornado total right now is a bit above average. Now I'm totally ready to put my foot in my mouth depending on how the rest of the season comes together lol (I mean, 2018 had an average total with basically no significant outbreaks).

 

[Tennie]

There are reports coming out of wind (possible tornado) damage from the area of Savannah, IA. We'll have to wait for storm surveys to see whether the winds were straight-line or tornadic.

 

[ColdFront]

I totally see why the SPC went enhanced due to the environment, but I think the writing is on the wall for this event now.

 

[ColdFront]

I do want to highlight the cells near Peoria. As @UK_EF4 noted earlier, mid-level shear is meh, but they’re in a decent enough environment to possibly do something.

11 SCP, 430+ effective SRH. Some noticeable dry air in the atmosphere above the moist layer, but that can actually be both good to keep weedy showers out, but also bad for the updraft if it’s too much.

 

[Tennie]

A Tornado Warning has been issued for the area between Woodstock and Waukegan, IL.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

This event went about how I expected. A significant tornado or two, and a few other little weak tornadoes. This was never the significant outbreak people pictured using the BarfBarfFS.

AS for tomorrow, im not too confident in a interesting event but there's a window for SW IA to do something. Uptrends can still occur with tomorrow so we'll see. Storm interactions were really key in today's event. But it's basically over at this point so

 

[Tennie]

Wisconsin's weather has been crazy today, with one part of the state getting severe weather warnings while another part has been getting winter weather warnings, and all this on an early April day. Make of that what you will...

 

[ColdFront]

This event went about how I expected. A significant tornado or two, and a few other little weak tornadoes. This was never the significant outbreak people pictured using the BarfBarfFS.

AS for tomorrow, im not too confident in an interesting event but there's a window for SW IA to do something. Uptrends can still occur with tomorrow so we'll see. Storm interactions were really key in today's event. But it's basically over at this point so

I really think until we get a proper pattern change, and away from this split flow & ridging regime, our events are going to have a lower ceiling.

Of course, just the way El Niño jet streaks behave could mean the troughs keep ejecting right over Illinois and Indiana for a while. Then, there’s still that period between La Niña decaying and going into El Niño that TNI would go up.