- Moderator
- #1
Severe weather happening now, and should continue into tomorrow. Tomorrow's threat is looking pretty good.
-
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 5/3-5/4/17
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
-
- Tags
- severe weather
- Staff
- #2
Arkansas and LA are having serious rain and flooding issues!!!
- Moderator
- #3
NWS reports 5-7" today and addition 1-3" possible this evening. Doppler estimates ~6-9+" in several areas of South Louisiana. Very impressive rainfall totals to say the least!
- Staff
- #4
I'm almost positive Nathan read that LA got a reading of 9 today!! I hope it doesn't get as bad a Baton Rouge!! Arkansas is bad enough!! I can't imagine seeing my home floating down and river and crashing into a bridge!!
SilentShadow87
Member
Wouldn't be surprised to see an expansion of the slight risk for tomorrow. Rainfall is still probably the biggest risk but wind/hail are pretty likely as well.
- Staff
- #6
The wake low behind the rain has had some pretty fierce wind gusts! My huge garbage can blew over and awaken and almost gave me and Dolly (my sweet dog) a heart attack!!
Y'all be careful heading to work and school, with the rain then these high wind gusts, trees could come down on roads easily!!
Y'all be careful heading to work and school, with the rain then these high wind gusts, trees could come down on roads easily!!
- Admin
- #7
The wake low is supposed to ease up this morning but returns this afternoon.
Lots of reports of trees down across north and central Alabama from the wake low. Via James Spann on Facebook, this tree fell on a house in Piedmont:
- Admin
- #9
There are many trees down being reported in the Birmingham area. It must have been one heck of a wind event.
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #10
This is a good forecast for today.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Thu May 04 2017
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S....
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight
across portions of the Pacific Northwest, in addition to the
Southeast States and Tennessee Valley to mid-Atlantic region.
...Synopsis...
A highly amplified pattern will exist over the CONUS throughout the
period. A closed trough over the Ozarks and lower/middle MS River
Valley this morning will move toward the southern
Appalachians/Southeast States through tonight and early Friday,
while an additional upper trough gradually approaches the Pacific
Northwest.
...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley to mid-Atlantic States...
The key uncertainty factor for much of the region relates to an
early-day band of outflow-focused showers and thunderstorms
extending from GA southwestward into the northeast and central Gulf
of Mexico early this morning. An extensive cloud shield is
associated with and precedes this convection, casting some
uncertainty regarding diurnal destabilization in pre-cold front
warm-sector areas. An increased confidence in thinning clouds and
somewhat more appreciable destabilization may warrant a categorical
Slight Risk upgrade in subsequent Day 1 Outlooks, potentially for
parts of GA into SC/NC.
Initially, at least some severe risk will exist early today across
the FL panhandle into other parts of north FL and south GA. For
additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 645. Even
with a cloud canopy persisting today, gradual low-level
moistening/destabilization through the afternoon could allow
outflow-focused storm development to occur into east GA and parts of
SC with at least some damaging wind/tornado risk. Other strong to
severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across eastern AL,
middle/eastern TN, and north GA in a north-south corridor near the
cold/occluded front.
Into this evening, it is possible that an intensification of
relatively low-topped/increasingly linear storms will gradually
occur near the east/northeastward-moving cold front, initially
across parts of GA into the Carolinas. This scenario would be aided
by a northeastward-ejecting vorticity maxima with the base of the
trough, while a surface low continues to deepen across the TN Valley
and southern Appalachians vicinity. Even with just modest
surface-based destabilization, dramatically strengthening
low/mid-level winds, accentuated by 250+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will at
least conditionally support a tornado risk and/or damaging
thunderstorm winds this evening into the overnight, potentially as
far northeast as portions of NC/VA.
...Pacific Northwest...
An upper trough centered along -140W early this morning will
continue steadily eastward today, with preceding height
falls/forcing for ascent reaching the Pacific Northwest later today
and especially into tonight. With a relatively moisture-rich air
mass across the region, steep mid-level lapse rates will support
moderate destabilization across the region into mid/late afternoon.
Diurnally enhanced orographic circulations and trough-preceding
height falls/ascent will support storm development, with convection
spreading north-northeastward this afternoon and evening. The
aforementioned instability, combined with 30-45 kt of effective
shear, may support organized convective structures capable of
isolated severe hail and wind into this evening.
..Guyer.. 05/04/2017
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Thu May 04 2017
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S....
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight
across portions of the Pacific Northwest, in addition to the
Southeast States and Tennessee Valley to mid-Atlantic region.
...Synopsis...
A highly amplified pattern will exist over the CONUS throughout the
period. A closed trough over the Ozarks and lower/middle MS River
Valley this morning will move toward the southern
Appalachians/Southeast States through tonight and early Friday,
while an additional upper trough gradually approaches the Pacific
Northwest.
...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley to mid-Atlantic States...
The key uncertainty factor for much of the region relates to an
early-day band of outflow-focused showers and thunderstorms
extending from GA southwestward into the northeast and central Gulf
of Mexico early this morning. An extensive cloud shield is
associated with and precedes this convection, casting some
uncertainty regarding diurnal destabilization in pre-cold front
warm-sector areas. An increased confidence in thinning clouds and
somewhat more appreciable destabilization may warrant a categorical
Slight Risk upgrade in subsequent Day 1 Outlooks, potentially for
parts of GA into SC/NC.
Initially, at least some severe risk will exist early today across
the FL panhandle into other parts of north FL and south GA. For
additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 645. Even
with a cloud canopy persisting today, gradual low-level
moistening/destabilization through the afternoon could allow
outflow-focused storm development to occur into east GA and parts of
SC with at least some damaging wind/tornado risk. Other strong to
severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across eastern AL,
middle/eastern TN, and north GA in a north-south corridor near the
cold/occluded front.
Into this evening, it is possible that an intensification of
relatively low-topped/increasingly linear storms will gradually
occur near the east/northeastward-moving cold front, initially
across parts of GA into the Carolinas. This scenario would be aided
by a northeastward-ejecting vorticity maxima with the base of the
trough, while a surface low continues to deepen across the TN Valley
and southern Appalachians vicinity. Even with just modest
surface-based destabilization, dramatically strengthening
low/mid-level winds, accentuated by 250+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will at
least conditionally support a tornado risk and/or damaging
thunderstorm winds this evening into the overnight, potentially as
far northeast as portions of NC/VA.
...Pacific Northwest...
An upper trough centered along -140W early this morning will
continue steadily eastward today, with preceding height
falls/forcing for ascent reaching the Pacific Northwest later today
and especially into tonight. With a relatively moisture-rich air
mass across the region, steep mid-level lapse rates will support
moderate destabilization across the region into mid/late afternoon.
Diurnally enhanced orographic circulations and trough-preceding
height falls/ascent will support storm development, with convection
spreading north-northeastward this afternoon and evening. The
aforementioned instability, combined with 30-45 kt of effective
shear, may support organized convective structures capable of
isolated severe hail and wind into this evening.
..Guyer.. 05/04/2017
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #11
Large 2% risk area for tornadoes.
MattW
Member
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Got a tornado warning headed right into TATL's blind spot. Lovely.
apocalyptic_pleasures
Member
Pretty bad that TATL is the only radar available that picks this up right now with NWS radar being down in Atlanta
GTWXAlum
Member
So, there was minor damage reported at Hartsfield-Jackson tonight and it looks like it could have been from a brief tornado per this tweet from FFC's MIC
- Staff
- #15
CoreyandFrosty
Member
Wow. I was looking at the clouds in Atlanta right before sunset and noticed swirling. I kept thinking I was about to see a tornado. I knew something was going on. I knew it looked like tornado weather. I know that sounds silly, but there was something strange with the clouds going on as the sun was going down.
warneagle
Member
NWS Atlanta confirms an EF-0 at Hartsfield-Jackson yesterday.
- Admin
- #18
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I can pretty much guarantee where my package is at...
