Tanner
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- Messages
- 774
- Location
- Granville, MA
I certianly trust nadocast over the smooth brained x’ers who like to bark up the wrong tree and tell the NWS their forecast is wrong. We all know it’s for engagement farming purposes.
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Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30
- Thread starter MMWX
- Start date
US_Highway15
Member
- Messages
- 635
- Location
- Michiana (IWX)
Since when did Amazon get a radar?
Ebaad Jaffery
Member
- Messages
- 118
- Location
- Frisco, TX
Seems like DFW or especially Collin County won’t be getting much.
Seems to be getting much needed rain.
Ebaad Jaffery
Member
- Messages
- 118
- Location
- Frisco, TX
Well yes that’s true!
Looks like the big issue currently is the flash flooding
70/50 is pretty high. Could also be a moderate with those numbers
It includes a decent chunk of the slight and even marginal risk. Definitely a significant upgrade in the 20z outlook.
Ebaad Jaffery
Member
- Messages
- 118
- Location
- Frisco, TX
SPC was quite a bit off with the initial forecast on this. Surprisingly most models were, including the HRRR.
Kds86z
Member
- Messages
- 4,471
- Location
- Greencastle, PA
So what’s going down? Lol
Sharpy
Member
- Messages
- 32
- Location
- United States
Apparently April wants to go out with a bang in the Southern Plains. Surprised at the watch probabilities.
WhirlingWx
Member
Some bigger updrafts developing south of Waco and north of Georgetown, but outflow from the northern storms seems to be crashing south towards them.
OH-IOan
Member
- Messages
- 426
- Location
- Franklin County, Ohio
Not sure about confirmed tornado counts, but currently we’re second only to 2011 in terms of tornado LSRs. For a second there I think 2025 was #1, but 4/27 came and 2011 skyrocketed there.
OH-IOan
Member
- Messages
- 426
- Location
- Franklin County, Ohio
Here’s a cool chart that NOAA updates daily; gives a good visual of how 2025 is going and how insane 2011 was:
It’s not related to this thread, but that 3/14-3/15 outbreak was truly anomalous and about as high end as you’ll see (without being a super outbreak or a sequence). You just see March shoot up right when that occurred for 2025
I’m not even that impressed with the environment/models for it to even warrant a 70/50. Not sure why they’re bullish but we will see
DanLarsen34
Member
- Messages
- 161
- Location
- Cedarburg, WI
I don’t think it’s wrong to question this. The linear and generally messy storm mode looks like it’s going to kill any threat within this watch. Maybe you still end up with a few QLCS tornadoes out of this, but even that may be in doubt right now