Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

[DanLarsen34]

SPC discussion for the right-split in Oklahoma was pretty bullish about the potential for it as the low level jet ramps up soon.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Here was the cap situation 4 hours ago



Here's the cap situation now. it has eroded for half of Iowa.



Here's what it's projected to look like in 2 hours.

 

[Kds86z]

Personally, I'm glad that things ended up underperforming, especially given that I have relatives who live near Minneapolis.


I dunno about that. There's always the chance that things could've played out quite differently today, and it just so happened that (in some kind of "Schroedinger's Cat"-type of way, perhaps?) things played out the way they did in the timeline we live in.

Amen @Tennie! Agree. SPC isn’t perfect and doing their job.

 

[Tennie]

Amen @Tennie! Agree. SPC isn’t perfect and doing their job.

After all, there's a reason why it was meteorology that birthed Chaos Theory!

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[jiharris0220]

The warning signs for this were present pretty much since the cams got into range, the fail modes have already been discussed.

But another particular red flag was that even when cams started convecting the dryline, none of them modeled impressive updraft helicity streaks.

Which can mean two things, anemic updrafts, or updrafts simply not taking advantage of the kinematics they’re in.

The unimpressive streamwise vorticity present on the hodographs alludes to these supercell’s inability to entrain background helicity into their updrafts due to the directional shear.

Today had a potential high ceiling, but the surface low responsible is simply ejecting to fast for the surface winds to back/veer enough to actually get any competent helicity entrainment.

Edit: but perhaps this cell in Kansas will be able to take advantage of the kinematics.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 40645

Yeah I wasn’t gonna jinx but.. has hook look..

 

[jiharris0220]

And just like that, the velocity couplet is gone, and the storm on the surface is not healthy.

Although to be fair the LLJ here has not intensified at all here yet and honestly even when it does, it will only max out at around 30-45knots.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[US_Highway15]

Probably the only worthwhile picture I got today. Got an eight hour drive back.

 

[Jbop]

Like has there been a single confirmed tornado today so far?

Is the event over? I'm not an expert but I have seen it before where not much happened during the day and then the night/overnight happened and it all changed.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 40653
Probably the only worthwhile picture I got today. Got an eight hour drive back.

Lovely @US_Highway15 . E for effort

 

[jiharris0220]

Is the event over? I'm not an expert but I have seen it before where not much happened during the day and then the night/overnight happened and it all changed.

Not going to happen here fortunately, the inversion layer mows down the convection after midnight as instability becomes to low to sustain sufficiently strong updrafts to resist the increasingly strong LLJ.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Tennie]

The left-split cell that's currently over Hobart, OK, apparently has a trail of one- to two-inch hail reports associated with it.

 

[tornado examiner]

If the don’t downgrade the moderate ima be confused

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Not going to happen here fortunately, the inversion layer mows down the convection after midnight as instability becomes to low to sustain sufficiently strong updrafts to resist the increasingly strong LLJ.

Well back to the old drawing board on Enhanced Fujita Scale Debate and Significant Tornado Events. It is strange how that occurs quite frequently that it is predictable. This is until the next major tornado outbreak.

 

[AJS]

Northern MN storm is tornado warned.

 

[AJS]