Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

[pr0t0genluvswEeather]

Oh that's just nasty.


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just my type of severe weather right there! i'd be sitting down there on a lawn chair drinking some sort of beverage watching it happen.

 

[AJS]

Seems to be relatively quiet for right now.

 

[TheSuckZone]

70/50

 

[eep]

If there is gonna be a stronger risk it'll be on the south side. As some blips are popping up in west Iowa. I do wonder if the line will break up as things further destabilize.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Is this storm in Kansas one to watch? I see it entering 3000 j/kg of cape

 

[Muwx]

Dry line likely to be more interesting than then moderate risk.

 

[ColdFront]

Storms are already charging through the moderate risk area, and only one reported tornado so far.

Southern area looks to be the zone now. Storm mode just would not cooperate in Minnesota. That may get the fat lady singing on Wisconsin too. By the time it gets there it’ll be one giant line. I’m really interested in the dryline in the plains though

 

[pr0t0genluvswEeather]

Is this storm in Kansas one to watch? I see it entering 3000 j/kg of cape

yeah some people are gonna be transported to Oz pretty soon over there!

 

[ColdFront]

Dry line likely to be more interesting than then moderate risk.

Hah! Great minds think alike

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

It's certainly an Isolated little guy

 

[Muwx]

Southern area looks to be the zone now. Storm mode just would not cooperate in Minnesota. That may get the fat lady singing on Wisconsin too. By the time it gets there it’ll be one giant line. I’m really interested in the dryline in the plains though

The dry line is likely to be more discrete, so that will likely keep it more interesting then MN/WI but the hodos down the dry line suck. We will see what they do when the LLJ starts cranking

 

[AJS]

It's certainly an Isolated little guy


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That little guy is looking at Des Moines.

 

[Tanner]

Have to wonder if the LCL heights are just cooperating at the moment. I recall someone saying that the cooling towards sundown could help aid in storms becoming more rooted at the surface. Perhaps the closer to dark we get, the more storms will rotate.

 

[Tennie]

The dry line is likely to be more discrete, so that will likely keep it more interesting then MN/WI but the hodos down the dry line suck. We will see what they do when the LLJ starts cranking

The storm near Chapman, KS, is trying to get itself together, but I'm currently not seeing much of a sign of rotation (not yet, at least). We may have to wait until the LLJ kicks in to see what it ends up doing.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Models have been showing some strong supercells in southern Minnesota behind this initial line all day. Storms may be in the moderate risk currently, but the conditions were never predicted to be the ripest until 5-7pm. There's going to be plenty of helicity along that dry line.

 

[AJS]

The storm near Chapman, KS, is trying to get itself together, but I'm currently not seeing much of a sign of rotation (not yet, at least). We may have to wait until the LLJ kicks in to see what it ends up doing.

Right now, that storm is the most concerning. It is beginning to organize.

 

[eep]

New storms off to the east, wondering if those may cause problems.

 

[Kds86z]

Hmm how many times have we had to wait til 7pm thid year. Lol shall see..

 

[ColdFront]

Hmm how many times have we had to wait til 7pm thid year. Lol shall see..

A lot of mistimed trough/shortwaves (Sans our two bigger events this year). Or high LCLs

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Give it a hour or two and we will be kicking once the sun goes down. Always happens