Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

[notsoencrypted]

It's so frustrating to try to see if there's any rotation over Brown, Watonwan, and Martin counties. But. That's why they've got the severe thunderstorm warnings with the tornado possible tags.

 

[Tennie]

There's a new Tornado Watch out for Texas and Oklahoma, with 40/20 tornado probabilities:

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 182

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[ColdFront]

St Cloud cell looks outflow dominant now and is about to get cut off and ran down by that cell from its southwest. That’s a highly populated area so that’s good

 

[Clancy]

Hoping all these storms behave themselves, though I'm wary of the propensity for storms to abruptly intensify from relatively meager severe storms into tornadic supercells when entering a regime of enhanced kinematics, which these are.

 

[notsoencrypted]

Hoping all these storms behave themselves, though I'm wary of the propensity for storms to abruptly intensify from relatively meager severe storms into tornadic supercells when entering a regime of enhanced kinematics, which these are.
View attachment 40608View attachment 40609

Yep, they're right along the edge of the space the SPC had called out in the MD earlier. I'm hoping they continue to behave, though, too.

 

[Tennie]

I'm not liking the look of the tornado-warned storm southeast of Saint Cloud, MN:

 

[Tennie]

Weather spotters reported a tornado near Fairmont, MN. That storm now has a Confirmed Tornado Warning on it.

 

[SmokeEater]

Weather spotters report a tornado near Fairmont, MN. That storm now has a Confirmed Tornado Warning on it.

Was seen from a spotter in Fairmont, looking west, no live chaser sees anything as of yet.

 

[Clancy]

Tornado on the ground, SW of Fairmont, Minnesota. NE at 60 MPH.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
424 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Blue Earth County in south central Minnesota...
Northwestern Faribault County in south central Minnesota...
Central Martin County in south central Minnesota...

* Until 500 PM CDT.

* At 424 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Ceylon, or 8
miles southwest of Fairmont, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught
without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or
destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will
occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Fairmont, Winnebago, Truman, Welcome, Amboy, Ceylon, Granada,
Northrop, Imogene, Fairmont Airport and Wilbert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built
building away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home,
or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9441 4385 9437 4388 9437 4399 9422
4381 9399 4351 9462 4359 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 226DEG 52KT 4358 9462

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

CTG

 

[Clancy]

Weird looking returns here SE of St. Cloud, velocity doesn't look quite right/isn't perfectly co-located, though it does seem to be trying to wrap around a bit. Fairmont storm is indecipherable from radar, both KMPX and KFSD.

 

[lake.effect]

Things are picking up - northern storm looks pretty good. The cell near Hutchinson, MN bears watching. If it organizes, it will head towards the northern side of the twin cities metro area, very populated.

 

[Clancy]

Hook now visible west of Princeton, or east of Santiago, MN. A growing storm immediately behind it is also demonstrating some rotation. Additional storms are firing out west in Nebraska, and may bring additional threats later today.

 

[Schoeppeya]

Latest HRRR wants to bring a supercell all the way up into my area (tulsa) tonight, looks like its gonna be late one.

 

[Maxis_s]

Supercell near Princeton, MN finally has some room to ingest inflow and should probably begin producing a tornado if it remains unimpeded.

 

[lake.effect]

Very concerned about the Hutchinson cell. It's not warned, but it's isolated and moving into a very favorable environment and moving into populated areas. If it gets its act together, it could be a beast.

 

[Tanner]

Storms are already charging through the moderate risk area, and only one reported tornado so far.

 

[lake.effect]

^ true, but still very early. The next 1-2 hours will be telling.

 

[TornadoFan]

Winnebago, MN tornado warned. Looks like a very weak tornado or gustnado on stream.

 

[lake.effect]

cell west of St Paul showing a developing meso and some tightening rotation.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Oh that's just nasty.