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Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

I have some relatives who live south of Minneapolis, MN. I've made sure to alert them to today's weather forecast, and to make sure that they alert others that they know as well.
 
So far convective mode across S MN has co-operated to reduce tornado threat, whether this stays the case will depend on who wins the battle - increasing low level shear or a strengthening cold pool.

The window for discrete supercells further south across N/C IA does seem to be increasing. Though this is still very much a nowcasting/wait and see type setup, tbh.
 
New Tornado Watch is out. 70/60 tornado probabilities for northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin:

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 181

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
UK_EF4 said:
So far convective mode across S MN has co-operated to reduce tornado threat, whether this stays the case will depend on who wins the battle - increasing low level shear or a strengthening cold pool.

The window for discrete supercells further south across N/C IA does seem to be increasing. Though this is still very much a nowcasting/wait and see type setup, tbh.
Click to expand...
Wasn't the uncertainty about convective mode and performance, anyway? I thought I read something to the like earlier.
 
Tennie said:
New Tornado Watch is out. 70/60 tornado probabilities for northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin:

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 181

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
Surprisingly low for a moderate risk. They're probably expecting a more linear mode I guess.
 
A new Mesoscare Discussion is out now for eastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, northwestern Missouri, and northeastern Kansas. It looks like there's a 95% chance that that area will be under a Watch within the next 1-2 hours or so:

mcd0587.png

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 587

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Last edited:
ColdFront said:
Writing may be on the wall for this one. We’ve had storms up since 2 PM and… it’s been quiet. Storm Mode is king and you’re just not going to have a high end event with a strung out linear line of storms like what is displayed right now.
Click to expand...
Let's give it a few hours and go from there. Things have been known to change radically, and sometimes even relatively messy storm mode may not inhibit the production of strong/violent tornadoes (Greenfield last year comes to mind--a tornado with a record-setting wind speed formed from a fairly messy storm mode).
 
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