Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

[jiharris0220]

 

[lake.effect]

Those two cells in NW Iowa just exploded in the last 10 minutes from a shower to 40,000 feet, wtf?

 

[Kds86z]

Honestly I have never been so sure on the outcome of a setup - especially considering storms have already fired.

View attachment 40592

At face value, this line of storms across MN have been maturing well both on radar and satellite. Radar suggests a semi-discrete supercell exists near Wilmont, MN.

View attachment 40593

The environment modelled in about 1-2 hours time ahead of this cluster is pretty ridiculous. Not only is a CIN free, 3000j/kg of CAPE forecast, but the hodograph is almost ideally shaped with a nearly 50kt storm relative inflow, and sickle shape in the 0-3km layer. I know there is "just" 270 SRH in the inflow layer, but in historical cases with robust thermodynamics and this particular hodograph shape (strong SR inflow, sickle, well vented aloft), the results are more often than not concerning.

Assuming we do get supercells which are at least somewhat discrete, with fully surface based mesocyclones, I would expected a corridor of intense-violent tornado potential through S MN over the next few hours. However based on the radar evolution so far I wouldn't say that's is a certainty... yet.

Pretty much a perfect example of a high-end nowcasting day.

Thank you!

 

[Ozonelayer]

Storms in west Iowa now

 

[Kds86z]

Up to 170 mph… pds

 

[TornadoFan]

Those two cells in NW Iowa just exploded in the last 10 minutes from a shower to 40,000 feet, wtf?

lolwut. That is alot of energy.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Tornado warning on our original cell.

 

[Muwx]

Up to 170 mph… pds

I would be surprised if this was a PDS watch.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

tor for this cell in Minnesota

 

[Clancy]

That's some pretty strong rotation in SW Minnesota. Of course, it's going into a radar hole between FSD and MPX.

 

[notsoencrypted]

I am keeping an eye on those cells that popped up in Iowa. If they continue in their general direction, they'll be going into/very near to the area that the recent MD highlighted as greatest risk.

I do also hate the radar hole that Clancy mentioned.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

wow, some pretty strong rotation here, def need to watch this

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

And now we're officially seeing supercells popping up ahead of the line in Minnesota that the HRRR hasn't shown on any runs. Not a good sign.

 

[Clancy]

 

[TornadoFan]

View attachment 40605

LMAO

 

[TheSuckZone]

View attachment 40605

I hope I'm alive to see the day where "radar holes" aren't a thing anymore

 

[notsoencrypted]

OK, I have one last task to take care of to be prepared, so I'mma go do that before things take off any more than they already are (and to hopefully keep my anxiety down for a few minutes).

 

[Clancy]

I hope I'm alive to see the day where "radar holes" aren't a thing anymore

Amen! It's just now crossed into the RF fields of both radars, so that sucks.

 

[Schoeppeya]

Looking at visible it sure looks like the whole dry line is going to try and go all the way down into ks

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Man, that prefrontal cell in Northwest Iowa sure did explode onto the scene