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Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

AJS said:
That is a pretty damn strong worded day 3 moderate. Monday really appears to be shaping up that it could be a pretty dangerous day.
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Even putting the wording aside for a moment, the fact that they went with a Day 3 moderate risk is really notable given how rare those are. That’s means there’s a very high likelihood that we end up with a high risk at some point for Monday.
 
UpperLevelLOL said:
Incredibly quick jet translation speeds on this, a similar dynamic to what we saw on 4/2. If that continues to be modeled and no other failure modes emerge, this could go high.

I wonder if Broyles is on the desk this weekend…
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As I was digging into the model runs yesterday, that was the first thing that popped out to me.

I’ll also say this: Wisconsin is long overdue for a significant tornado event in general, including a violent tornado. We really haven’t had a discrete supercell significant tornado threat that materialized since April 2011 and the June 2007 event up north that produced a major EF-3 tornado.

Historically, we’ve had at least 1-2 violent tornadoes per decade. We haven’t had one I believe since the Oakfield EF-5 in 1996.

This seems like the kind of set-up that could end both of those streaks.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
As I was digging into the model runs yesterday, that was the first thing that popped out to me.

I’ll also say this: Wisconsin is long overdue for a significant tornado event in general, including a violent tornado. We really haven’t had a discrete supercell significant tornado threat that materialized since April 2011 and the June 2007 event up north that produced a major EF-3 tornado.

Historically, we’ve had at least 1-2 violent tornadoes per decade. We haven’t had one I believe since the Oakfield EF-5 in 1996.

This seems like the kind of set-up that could end both of those streaks.
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Minnesota kinda seems to be in that same boat, ever since the Dalton-Ashby EF4 they’ve kinda been quiet. Seems like Monday Minnesota could wake up in a violent way. Last time they had this major of a threat was in June of 2010 I believe. (if there is a date more recent correct me if I’m wrong)
 
Thoughts on the Northern IL risk area?
Models are shifting the risk area subtly to the east and south a bit and even Chicago looks like it might get some action.

Seriously considering chasing on Monday if things come together.
 
Actually, the whole 12Z 3K NAM run (first to bring Monday afternoon/evening into range) was quite anticlimactic. Fires very little convection through 0Z Tuesday, and what it does fire is back near Omaha well west of the best parameters.

Could be a case of the NAM cool bias keeping the (simulated) atmosphere capped.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Actually, the whole 12Z 3K NAM run (first to bring Monday afternoon/evening into range) was quite anticlimactic. Fires very little convection through 0Z Tuesday, and what it does fire is back near Omaha well west of the best parameters.

Could be a case of the NAM cool bias keeping the (simulated) atmosphere capped.
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Yeah, I noticed this too. Let's wait for a few more runs. End-range NAM (past 60 hours) can be a bit wonky.

It's interesting that the globals are more bullish on the threat right now than the NAM. That's unusual.
 
Bentley once again cooking with an outlook, hes my fav with Broyles as my second both can drop mdts or highs if needed and have incredible discussions. Regardless, Monday seems to be a very significant wx day and those who are in the region need to get ready to prepare as waiting until Monday would be very stupid and could be dangerous
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
Bentley once again cooking with an outlook, hes my fav with Broyles as my second both can drop mdts or highs if needed and have incredible discussions. Regardless, Monday seems to be a very significant wx day and those who are in the region need to get ready to prepare as waiting until Monday would be very stupid and could be dangerous
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Yeah, I love Bentley.
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
Bentley once again cooking with an outlook, hes my fav with Broyles as my second both can drop mdts or highs if needed and have incredible discussions. Regardless, Monday seems to be a very significant wx day and those who are in the region need to get ready to prepare as waiting until Monday would be very stupid and could be dangerous
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Yep, Bentley is the best in my opinion. Right more than he is wrong.

Regardless, I'm glad I don't have work on Monday. I can track this event in it's entirety.
 
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