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Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

This setup reminds me a lot of Greenfield setup. Your trough ejection was centered how it was now, dew points were around mid 60s like they are now. Cape leading up was a bit in question but there was some spots that had 3500+. Hard to say if we’re gonna have more discrete or linear convection, I think I wanna see a bit more forcing and better helicity. Which all of that will come with time. A little bit tricky to forecast in my opinion.
 
US_Highway15 said:
As of right now, I don't see it personally, but considering there's already a 30% ENH risk, there's a good chance it goes MOD. But, never say never, like what happened on 4/2. We're five days out, so a lot can change
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Ok, that seems fair.

If the helicity values uptrend into the 300-400 m2/s2 and shear is 40 knots or greater, then I can see it going HIGH. As of now, a MDT seems likely.
 
Yeah I’d say MDT would be the most probable… For now, too early to really break down where the highest threat will truly be. The outlook will change overtime. Like @US_Highway15 said above, once we get a broad model run tmr, there will be a bit of certainty.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Might be worth adding Sunday 4/27 to the thread. I've been watching it for a while and was a bit surprised SPC didn't see fit to at least add a Day 4 15% today. 18Z NAM soundings are pretty juiced across much of Kansas.

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Huh, I don't like that. Soundings look pretty favorable for at least a few tornadoes and maybe a strong one.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Might be worth adding Sunday 4/27 to the thread. I've been watching it for a while and was a bit surprised SPC didn't see fit to at least add a Day 4 15% today. 18Z NAM soundings are pretty juiced across much of Kansas.

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Honestly if I were chasing this day would have my attention over Monday, very impressive parameters if storms can get going. I was also suprised the SPC doesnt even have an outline.

1745528601446.png

Lots of time to change but as of now I am not super impressed with Monday... SW surface winds, sw to ne dryline orientation and SW upper level flow screams messy storm mode and lower low level shear to me
 
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Schoeppeya said:
Honestly if I were chasing this day would have my attention over Monday, very impressive parameters if storms can get going. I was also suprised the SPC doesnt even have an outline.

View attachment 40266

Lots of time to change but as of now I am not super impressed with Monday... SW surface winds, sw to ne dryline orientation and SW upper level flow screams messy storm mode and lower low level shear to me
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I don't know, I'm not gonna crucify Monday until the NAM model rolls in tomorrow afternoon.
 
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