Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[US_Highway15]

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 162 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing across portions of WW 162.
Strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging gusts remain
possible.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and a few towering cumulus are noted
in GOES-16 DCP imagery recently. A couple of towers now have
lightning occurring over far southern IL. This activity is occurring
within an axis of strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The
VWP from KPAH also shows wind profiles favorable for supercells with
strong tornado potential, indicated by enlarged, looping low-level
hodographs and 0-1 km SRH over 250 m2/s2. Additional strengthening
of the nocturnal low-level jet is expected over the next couple of
hours. In tandem, forcing for ascent should increase across portions
of WW 162. This may support additional supercell
development/strengthening of current convective attempts in the
short term. Any storms the develop could strengthen and organize
quickly, posing a risk for very large hail and strong to intense
tornadoes.

 

[Kds86z]

That Sullivan, MO storm has a decent meso starting to form

 

[US_Highway15]

That Sullivan, MO storm has a decent meso starting to form

Not to be that guy, but that storms heading straight towards the suburbs of St. Louis...

Edit: My bad, it'll pass south. Track in WX Wise showed a NE trajectory.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Also got cells going up over the Mississippi River on the Arkansas-MS border.

Looking interesting too

 

[bckhd2]

Cell near Sullivan MO looks interesting on velocity. Signature messy though

 

[Chris3024]

Looking interesting too

Those cells are up to 40k ft along the Miss/Ark line but are struggling to grow past that. For now, it seems that is the case.

 

[zath]

The Sullivan, MO storm is the first really interesting storm of the day to me. Given how trigger happy St. Louis WFO has been all day, I'm surprised they haven't already issued a tornado warning.

 

[TornadoFan]

Yikes!

 

[Beachwalker]

Well, here we go with some right movers. Wow what an untapped environment too.

 

[US_Highway15]

Just tornado warned that Sullivan storm. Looks like they legit just replaced the Severe T-Storm Warning they issued like five minutes ago.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

New meso
Over the PDS watch Tennessee Arkansas. Fixing to
Go

 

[DanLarsen34]

I think we’re about to have an intense to violent tornado imminently with the storm approaching the southern burbs of St. Louis including Hillsboro. Both the velocity and reflectivity presentation is highly supportive of it, not to mention the environment it’s heading into.

 

[Kds86z]

Yikes!

Max and Riley hitting that one hard

 

[eep]

Basher and Fowler MO storms are visibly ramping up, not tornadic but on track for it.

 

[SmokeEater]

 

[Maxis_s]

Sullivan, MO storm is gonna do it. STP is around 6, very good hodograph shape, good LRs (7-7.5 C/km) without capping to make sure it remains surface based, and is slowly moving into an even better environment.

 

[warneagle]

I think we’re about to have an intense to violent tornado imminently with the storm approaching the southern burbs of St. Louis including Hillsboro. Both the velocity and reflectivity presentation is highly supportive of it, not to mention the environment it’s heading into.

moving into an area with 6-8 STP according to mesoanalysis

 

[SmokeEater]

New meso discussion for N MS and NW AL, 60% watch possible.

 

[eep]

Cycled its meso, still on pace to ramp up fast though.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

For those who didn't know, this blue dot is St. Louis. Definitely not an ideal situation.