Definitely a weird situation thus far. There's many, many, many situations where people start calling le bu$t one hour into the afternoon, but this was a situation where major daytime supercellular development was explicitly forecast and anticipated. Seems like capping is playing a big role in the northern zone, but wouldn't want to be sitting in the path of any of these storms if it were to break. Further south may well end up overperforming significantly in the AR/TN/MS vicinity - it's going to be in that corridor this evening where an intensifying LLJ often works with linearizing storms to produce strong QLCS tornadoes - but the question is if sufficient initiation occurs there at all this afternoon. If anything gets going in Arkansas, it could grow upscale and produce a lot of QLCS trouble overnight. If not, it'll make for several hours of pixel-watching. from KNQA.
