US_Highway15
Member
I recall last week everyone posting how this next week was going to be doomsday and we'd get a bad outbreak. Now hows that looking?
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Severe weather threat 4/23/26 (Central/Southern Plains)
- Thread starter WeathermanLeprechaun
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #22
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I agree. Don't know why people keep saying this is 2018ing, the less deaths/injuries the better.
they’re just being facetious. No one in their right mind on here (or in the other broader online weather community) is wishing for that.
We aren’t gathered on this forum to talk about beautiful, blue sky weather lol
NorthGaWeather
Member
I am not up to speed on this event, but I wouldn’t read a ton into this item. Two different forecasters with two different mindsets. Marsh has always been more toned down.
genie
Member
Pretty much. For the most part, people here are just fascinated by severe weather and excited at the prospect of watching/studying it. I do get frustrated when you have people heart eye reacting to debris balls like we did during the most recent outbreak, but those types are the minority.
The only forecaster that'll make confident statements on storms in the extended range is Broyles tbh.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
my fav spc forecasters are Broyles and Bentley they are both super good at what they do and to add to this its them who did the questionnaire with Convective Chronicles
N0mz
Member
Based on the 18z GFS alone, the southern threat looks really bust-y to me. Too much capping during prime hours and temp/dew spreads kill the event after 00z.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
saying "bust-y" and temp due spreads are too much when we are looking at an event thats like a full week out when temps are best looked at in and aound a few days b4 hand is a wee dumb In my opinion
- Thread starter
- #30
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I agree. It's better to say it more like "I'm not too fond of Thursday" or they you don't see the potential. But calling for a bust-y event is a bit much atm, even if this threat doesn't look too decent.
What I brought up was how I assumed 2018 floundered, however, I think it would be true if I clarified that I was talking about april-may in 2021 and 2022, which were in fact, comically silent. In those years, the great death ridge muted most activity during prime tornado season. Past that I do agree with this analysis.
US_Highway15
Member
Take this with a grain of salt, but the GFS in the 18z run, just had a major uptick on the day. Will be interested on seeing the 00Z run. Usually I wouldn't post this, but the 12z kind of had a similar look. Nonetheless, so far it looks like an environment with a very defined capping inversion.
Schoeppeya
Member
At this range, I like this system for the plains more than anything else so far this season. Models are actually in decent agreement about a secondary surface low backing winds along the dryline in Ok/KS... as a few others have mentioned a pretty stout cap in place on most models but I would take that at this range.
Schoeppeya
Member
Looks like images still arent working but pretty stout uncapped sounding from the Euro for thursday evening along the dryline in Ok
- Thread starter
- #35
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
GFS has trended less messier on the dryline but still says anything on the dryline in OK could get messyish. Maybe not a full line though. Regardless, i see some sort of all hazards threat possible on Thursday.
US_Highway15
Member
Super interesting ouput by CSU's system. Showing OKC and surrounding areas in the bullseye, while the SPC doesn't see that.
Schoeppeya
Member
The SPC does not seem bullish on this setup at all and I actually disagree with a few things in the discussions... specifically mid level flow parallel to the boundary leading to quick upscale growth... that may be the case at 850mb but by 700 mb the flow is very perpendicular to the dryline. They also mention capping issues and I think the globals have trended away from a strong cap still in place by 0z thursday. I think this threat is easily the best plains dryline setup of the year, as of now.
jackhutwx
Member
major uptick it looks like with the new spc outlooks, slight risks d3-d7 is wild lol.
jiharris0220
Member
I think the threat on Thursday is being ignored a bit too much.
Looking through all available models, Oklahoma has an elevated chance of seeing its first real tornado outbreak since 2024. Although KS looks like the area most under threat, I’ll be focusing on OK specifically.
All of these soundings were taken in Ok and all of them consist of 2000-4000+ cape, 200-400+ SRH, 7 to 8+c/km LLLR, 30 to 45+ knot LLS, veered PBL winds, EBWD values above 40knots, and a weak inversion layer.
Looking at the Synoptics, you have a neutral tilt longwave trough with an embedded shortwave superimposed on the dryline. The jet streak core translates very quickly over the warm sector, and is composed of the constructive interference of the sub tropical jet and the main jet stream. This jet streak splits/diffluences right I’ve the warm sector as well.
This shortwave superimposition and the jet streak diffluence is what makes me think Thursday could go big, the combination of both of these factors introduces a strong forcing mechanism in what would usually be a clear cut convective shut-out.
Moving lower in the atmosphere at 850mb, the shortwave/proto-low can be seen inducing a vortmax which accelerates the LLJ in OK/KS to over 40-50+knots. At the surface, this feature is obviously responsible for the marked increase of vertical instability right along the dryline.
Looking at moisture, the proto-low itself can be easily seen in west-central KS. It’s easy to notice that the dryline becomes far sharper south of this feature plus where the surface winds become backed.
As always however in this area of the US, it seems the failure mode will be if storms can initiate in the first place. And as expected, most models global and CAMs, with the exception of the 3km NAM, RRFS, RGEM, show no initiation. Despite the fact that looking at the OMEGA values in the soundings taken around the area, there’s more than enough forcing for convection.
We really need to keep a close eye on Thursday folks, as this set-up seems to be going under the radar.
Looking through all available models, Oklahoma has an elevated chance of seeing its first real tornado outbreak since 2024. Although KS looks like the area most under threat, I’ll be focusing on OK specifically.
All of these soundings were taken in Ok and all of them consist of 2000-4000+ cape, 200-400+ SRH, 7 to 8+c/km LLLR, 30 to 45+ knot LLS, veered PBL winds, EBWD values above 40knots, and a weak inversion layer.
Looking at the Synoptics, you have a neutral tilt longwave trough with an embedded shortwave superimposed on the dryline. The jet streak core translates very quickly over the warm sector, and is composed of the constructive interference of the sub tropical jet and the main jet stream. This jet streak splits/diffluences right I’ve the warm sector as well.
This shortwave superimposition and the jet streak diffluence is what makes me think Thursday could go big, the combination of both of these factors introduces a strong forcing mechanism in what would usually be a clear cut convective shut-out.
Moving lower in the atmosphere at 850mb, the shortwave/proto-low can be seen inducing a vortmax which accelerates the LLJ in OK/KS to over 40-50+knots. At the surface, this feature is obviously responsible for the marked increase of vertical instability right along the dryline.
Looking at moisture, the proto-low itself can be easily seen in west-central KS. It’s easy to notice that the dryline becomes far sharper south of this feature plus where the surface winds become backed.
As always however in this area of the US, it seems the failure mode will be if storms can initiate in the first place. And as expected, most models global and CAMs, with the exception of the 3km NAM, RRFS, RGEM, show no initiation. Despite the fact that looking at the OMEGA values in the soundings taken around the area, there’s more than enough forcing for convection.
We really need to keep a close eye on Thursday folks, as this set-up seems to be going under the radar.
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- Thread starter
- #40
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
That's odd because isn't the 12z GFS initiating on the vertical velocity product? I've heard that product is more useful then composite relfectivity this far out on global and it initiates clearly strong convection that maybe isn't the most discrete. It tries to model somewhat a more broken mode, which would still be problematic if to take verbatim with the kinematics at play