Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[TH2002]

Not sure if this was already posted, but sad news coming from Walthall County, MS (site of the Tylertown tornadoes):

Coroner identifies fourth Walthall County tornado victim

The Walthall County coroner has released information about the four people who were killed during the tornado outbreak.

www.wapt.com

 

[Kds86z]

Not sure if this was already posted, but sad news coming from Walthall County, MS (site of the Tylertown tornadoes):

Coroner identifies fourth Walthall County tornado victim

The Walthall County coroner has released information about the four people who were killed during the tornado outbreak.

www.wapt.com

Sad and also sad still others in critical condition.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Cross posting from the ratings debate thread:



This is the Diaz slab in question. It will likely come under heavy scrutiny at the NWS because of the large tree located within the debris. Large debris is very commonly used to downgrade damage to structures during surveys. In the eyes of prominent storm surveyors, it is impossible to determine structures were destroyed by 205 MPH winds when it could've been debris impacts.

Surveyors normally don't use context like, for some examples, the severe ground scouring at the top of this pic (across the driveway); or the tipped over (potentially thrown) dump truck; or the 9 mangled cars that were launched like missiles (gathered top right); or the severe granulation of the house debris into tiny bits; or the sheared off, and bent anchor bolts..

In one tornado they even referenced a fence still standing nearby (like the one on the left in this photo) as evidence higher winds weren't actually present. There is no wind speed officially assigned to any of these contextual indicators, and there is no consensus of what wind speeds cause them. So they assign a lower bound wind speed. This home is a textbook EF3 rating under the current precedent.



Here's where the snapped foundation is, and a closer view of it. Going to be pretty impossible to say what caused it. My fascinated inner child wants to know if it could've been the dump truck, but I know it was probably the bulldozer.





These surveyors did an excellent job analyzing and documenting the damage, and using context to eliminate any doubt the tree may have caused. I'm confident this team could be the one to announce the next EF5. Either with this storm, or a future one. I believe, they will just need to be permitted to do so.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

If my analysis comes off as insensitive, just know I believe it's important that people understand tornadoes are as strong as they've ever been, and the worst ones aren't "extinct". I believe rating tornadoes accurately and objectively is a public safety issue.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Cross posting from the ratings debate thread:

View attachment 36674

This is the Diaz slab in question. It will likely come under heavy scrutiny at the NWS because of the large tree located within the debris. Large debris is very commonly used to downgrade damage to structures during surveys. In the eyes of prominent storm surveyors, it is impossible to determine structures were destroyed by 205 MPH winds when it could've been debris impacts.

Surveyors normally don't use context like, for some examples, the severe ground scouring at the top of this pic (across the driveway); or the tipped over (potentially thrown) dump truck; or the 9 mangled cars that were launched like missiles (gathered top right); or the severe granulation of the house debris into tiny bits; or the sheared off, and bent anchor bolts..

In one tornado they even referenced a fence still standing nearby (like the one on the left in this photo) as evidence higher winds weren't actually present. There is no wind speed officially assigned to any of these contextual indicators, and there is no consensus of what wind speeds cause them. So they assign a lower bound wind speed. This home is a textbook EF3 rating under the current precedent.

View attachment 36675View attachment 36676

Here's where the snapped foundation is, and a closer view of it. Going to be pretty impossible to say what caused it. My fascinated inner child wants to know if it could've been the dump truck, but I know it was probably the bulldozer.

View attachment 36677

View attachment 36678View attachment 36679

These surveyors did an excellent job analyzing and documenting the damage, and using context to eliminate any doubt the tree may have caused. I'm confident this team could be the one to announce the next EF5. Either with this storm, or a future one. I believe, they will just need to be permitted to do so.

I myself would rate this as a 180 or 185 mph EF4. I also don't think the 190 mph EF4 is a bad call either. A lot of surveyors need to get over this where did this come from, why is that still there, on and on and on.

 

[buckeye05]

Cross posting from the ratings debate thread:

View attachment 36674

This is the Diaz slab in question. It will likely come under heavy scrutiny at the NWS because of the large tree located within the debris. Large debris is very commonly used to downgrade damage to structures during surveys. In the eyes of prominent storm surveyors, it is impossible to determine structures were destroyed by 205 MPH winds when it could've been debris impacts.

Surveyors normally don't use context like, for some examples, the severe ground scouring at the top of this pic (across the driveway); or the tipped over (potentially thrown) dump truck; or the 9 mangled cars that were launched like missiles (gathered top right); or the severe granulation of the house debris into tiny bits; or the sheared off, and bent anchor bolts..

In one tornado they even referenced a fence still standing nearby (like the one on the left in this photo) as evidence higher winds weren't actually present. There is no wind speed officially assigned to any of these contextual indicators, and there is no consensus of what wind speeds cause them. So they assign a lower bound wind speed. This home is a textbook EF3 rating under the current precedent.

View attachment 36675View attachment 36676

Here's where the snapped foundation is, and a closer view of it. Going to be pretty impossible to say what caused it. My fascinated inner child wants to know if it could've been the dump truck, but I know it was probably the bulldozer.

View attachment 36677

View attachment 36678View attachment 36679

These surveyors did an excellent job analyzing and documenting the damage, and using context to eliminate any doubt the tree may have caused. I'm confident this team could be the one to announce the next EF5. Either with this storm, or a future one. I believe, they will just need to be permitted to do so.

Geeeeez. That is no joke and worse than some of the earlier pics suggested. This comes really close…

I myself would rate this as a 180 or 185 mph EF4. I also don't think the 190 mph EF4 is a bad call either. A lot of surveyors need to get over this where did this come from, why is that still there, on and on and on.

Honestly, looking closer at that higher resolution pre-cleanup pic posted just above, I have to back-pedal a bit and say this is one is quite high-end and pretty borderline. Even though it isn't a totally clean sweep, the foundation is cleaner than some of the initial blurrier photos suggested. I'd honestly be more than ok with 195 MPH. It's just too violent for mid-range EF4 in my opinion. I'm still ok with high-end EF4 for the record, but man the more I look at it, this one is kinda pushing it honestly.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Geeeeez. That is no joke and worse than some of the earlier pics suggested. This comes really close…


Honestly, looking closer at that higher resolution pre-cleanup pic posted just above, I have to back-pedal a bit and say this is one is quite high-end and pretty borderline. Even though it isn't a totally clean sweep, the foundation is cleaner than some of the initial blurrier photos suggested. I'd honestly be more than ok with 195 MPH. It's just too violent for mid-range EF4 in my opinion. I'm still ok with high-end EF4 for the record, but man the more I look at it, this one is kinda pushing it honestly.

Maybe so. I am not sure how to feel about this. This is a tough one to rate.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Geeeeez. That is no joke and worse than some of the earlier pics suggested. This comes really close…


Honestly, looking closer at that higher resolution pre-cleanup pic posted just above, I have to back-pedal a bit and say this is one is quite high-end and pretty borderline. Even though it isn't a totally clean sweep, the foundation is cleaner than some of the initial blurrier photos suggested. I'd honestly be more than ok with 195 MPH. It's just too violent for mid-range EF4 in my opinion. I'm still ok with high-end EF4 for the record, but man the more I look at it, this one is kinda pushing it honestly.

Agreed. in a vacuum, this damage isn't really enough to cross the EF5 threshold, and it sets a solid precedent for a borderline case between high-end EF4 and 5. It's certainly a more logical rating than EF3.

Maybe so. I am not sure how to feel about this. This is a tough one to rate.

Really tough. It was a very well built, brick house. It'll probably come down to the concrete damage. I'm now actually seeing more on the slab to the right (in the first pic).

 

[Jason Mills]

The Troy tornado was rated EF2 with max winds of 130 and a path length of 21 miles.

 

[Maxis_s]

I don't know if anyone else noticed but

Cross posting from the ratings debate thread:

View attachment 36674

This is the Diaz slab in question. It will likely come under heavy scrutiny at the NWS because of the large tree located within the debris. Large debris is very commonly used to downgrade damage to structures during surveys. In the eyes of prominent storm surveyors, it is impossible to determine structures were destroyed by 205 MPH winds when it could've been debris impacts.

Surveyors normally don't use context like, for some examples, the severe ground scouring at the top of this pic (across the driveway); or the tipped over (potentially thrown) dump truck; or the 9 mangled cars that were launched like missiles (gathered top right); or the severe granulation of the house debris into tiny bits; or the sheared off, and bent anchor bolts..

In one tornado they even referenced a fence still standing nearby (like the one on the left in this photo) as evidence higher winds weren't actually present. There is no wind speed officially assigned to any of these contextual indicators, and there is no consensus of what wind speeds cause them. So they assign a lower bound wind speed. This home is a textbook EF3 rating under the current precedent.

View attachment 36675View attachment 36676

Here's where the snapped foundation is, and a closer view of it. Going to be pretty impossible to say what caused it. My fascinated inner child wants to know if it could've been the dump truck, but I know it was probably the bulldozer.

View attachment 36677

View attachment 36678View attachment 36679

These surveyors did an excellent job analyzing and documenting the damage, and using context to eliminate any doubt the tree may have caused. I'm confident this team could be the one to announce the next EF5. Either with this storm, or a future one. I believe, they will just need to be permitted to do so.

In the 4th pic, the right slab also has some sort of damage to the foundation before cleanup that was certainly caused by the tornado. Leads me to believe that the more significant foundation damage may have also been caused by the tornado

 

[SouthFLwx]

Cross posting from the ratings debate thread:

View attachment 36674

This is the Diaz slab in question. It will likely come under heavy scrutiny at the NWS because of the large tree located within the debris. Large debris is very commonly used to downgrade damage to structures during surveys. In the eyes of prominent storm surveyors, it is impossible to determine structures were destroyed by 205 MPH winds when it could've been debris impacts.

Surveyors normally don't use context like, for some examples, the severe ground scouring at the top of this pic (across the driveway); or the tipped over (potentially thrown) dump truck; or the 9 mangled cars that were launched like missiles (gathered top right); or the severe granulation of the house debris into tiny bits; or the sheared off, and bent anchor bolts..

In one tornado they even referenced a fence still standing nearby (like the one on the left in this photo) as evidence higher winds weren't actually present. There is no wind speed officially assigned to any of these contextual indicators, and there is no consensus of what wind speeds cause them. So they assign a lower bound wind speed. This home is a textbook EF3 rating under the current precedent.

View attachment 36675View attachment 36676

Here's where the snapped foundation is, and a closer view of it. Going to be pretty impossible to say what caused it. My fascinated inner child wants to know if it could've been the dump truck, but I know it was probably the bulldozer.

View attachment 36677

View attachment 36678View attachment 36679

These surveyors did an excellent job analyzing and documenting the damage, and using context to eliminate any doubt the tree may have caused. I'm confident this team could be the one to announce the next EF5. Either with this storm, or a future one. I believe, they will just need to be permitted to do so.

I’m pretty sure that large tree in the debris was right behind the house and got uprooted during the tornado.

 

[Fred Gossage]

If we were to blatantly assume the denoted tornadoes are getting upgraded, this outbreak could end up with an extra ef4, two extra ef3s, and one extra ef2; which would end up being 22Ef2/9Ef3/4Ef4 . (Not counting other areas yet to be surveyed)

If that "at least EF3" is upgraded, that will make this event the most violent tornado outbreak since 2014 Pilger, NE day event in terms of number of officially rated violent tornadoes. It would also be getting very close to an event the level of Super Tuesday 2008, etc., in terms of violent tornadoes. An event with 5 or more of them roughly happens every 9-10 years in the United States, although there have been some active stretches where the separation between such events is 3 years or less. However, since Lincoln's presidency, we had never gone more than 13 years without an outbreak in the U.S. producing at least 5 (E)F4+ officially rated tornadoes. As of this year, we are currently sitting in year 14. It will be interesting to see if this might've been the outbreak to end that stretch.

Also of note, the Birmingham and Huntsville TV market counties haven't had an official violent rated tornado since 2011, and that's not because of questionable surveys. Since Lincoln's presidency, that's also the longest that specific part of Alabama has gone without an F4-F5 rated tornado. At some point, the shoe will drop...

 

[tornado examiner]

If that "at least EF3" is upgraded, that will make this event the most violent tornado outbreak since the 2011 event in terms of number of officially rated violent tornadoes. It would also be getting very close to an event the level of Super Tuesday 2008, etc., in terms of violent tornadoes. An event with 5 or more of them roughly happens every 9-10 years in the United States, although there have been some active stretches where the separation between such events is 3 years or less. However, since Lincoln's presidency, we had never gone more than 13 years without an outbreak in the U.S. producing at least 5 (E)F4+ officially rated tornadoes. As of this year, we are currently sitting in year 14. It will be interesting to see if this might've been the outbreak to end that stretch.

Also of note, the Birmingham and Huntsville TV market counties haven't had an official violent rated tornado since 2011, and that's not because of questionable surveys. Since Lincoln's presidency, that's also the longest that specific part of Alabama has gone without an F4-F5 rated tornado. At some point, the shoe will drop...

If we’re talking EF4+ then that’s since 2014. Pilger event.

 

[Fred Gossage]

If we’re talking EF4+ then that’s since 2014. Pilger event.

Completely forgot that had four of the heifers. Fixed.

 

[tornado examiner]

Not sure if y’all know this but NWS Jackson found a bare minimum EF4 di for their side of the first Tylertown town wedge. The one already rated EF4.

 

[AJS]

Geeeeez. That is no joke and worse than some of the earlier pics suggested. This comes really close…


Honestly, looking closer at that higher resolution pre-cleanup pic posted just above, I have to back-pedal a bit and say this is one is quite high-end and pretty borderline. Even though it isn't a totally clean sweep, the foundation is cleaner than some of the initial blurrier photos suggested. I'd honestly be more than ok with 195 MPH. It's just too violent for mid-range EF4 in my opinion. I'm still ok with high-end EF4 for the record, but man the more I look at it, this one is kinda pushing it honestly.

In my opinion, excluding Vilonia, this has been the closest one to ending the EF5 drought. TLZK did a fantastic job with this survey and have given me a lot of confidence in the future of their ratings.

 

[AJS]

Maybe so. I am not sure how to feel about this. This is a tough one to rate.

I think it’s a case where either rating wouldn’t cause controversy. At the end of the day, I do believe the rating is the right call, but I would up the wind speed slightly.

 

[Tennie]

Jeez, looking at that I can't help but call to mind something like a little kid just smashing a couple toy cars together on the ground and just leaving them there like that!

 

[ColdFront]

If that "at least EF3" is upgraded, that will make this event the most violent tornado outbreak since 2014 Pilger, NE day event in terms of number of officially rated violent tornadoes. It would also be getting very close to an event the level of Super Tuesday 2008, etc., in terms of violent tornadoes. An event with 5 or more of them roughly happens every 9-10 years in the United States, although there have been some active stretches where the separation between such events is 3 years or less. However, since Lincoln's presidency, we had never gone more than 13 years without an outbreak in the U.S. producing at least 5 (E)F4+ officially rated tornadoes. As of this year, we are currently sitting in year 14. It will be interesting to see if this might've been the outbreak to end that stretch.

Also of note, the Birmingham and Huntsville TV market counties haven't had an official violent rated tornado since 2011, and that's not because of questionable surveys. Since Lincoln's presidency, that's also the longest that specific part of Alabama has gone without an F4-F5 rated tornado. At some point, the shoe will drop...

That’s extremely interesting, Fred. I know with urban sprawl we would expect more opportunities for violent tornados vs the 20th and 19th centuries. But it does seem like the overall volume and occurrence of outbreaks with violent tornados, sans 4/27/11, over the past decade or has decreased. Can some of the variation be due to how conservative some aspects of the EF scale have gotten? That’s what I believe vs some sort of climatological signal that tornados are changing in character. I definitely don’t believe tornados are weaker. Interested to hear your thoughts.

The Alabama fact actually surprises me even more. That place has been a violent tornado magnet.

 

[lake.effect]

We are very fortunate that this outbreak tracked over mostly rural areas for the duration.
These were violent tornadoes, based on velocity signatures and existing DIs, we could have had a EF5 or two if some of these had produced damage over more populated areas.