Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[cg9450]

… smh not again

Yeah, he just came back on and said he found some mobile homes flipped.

 

[akt1985]

Only one Tornado Warning at the moment and it’s the PDS warning northeast of Troy.

 

[MikeP]

On a lighter note, despite the problems these storms have caused over the last 2 days, step outside and look up at the moon tonight. Completely beautiful to see the clouds racing by. That's assuming you're in the clear - they're booking. Really cool to see....

 

[Teche]

On a lighter note, despite the problems these storms have caused over the last 2 days, step outside and look up at the moon tonight. Completely beautiful to see the clouds racing by. That's assuming you're in the clear - clouds are ripping by. Really cool to see....

No clouds here, but the moon looks super cool. Did any of y'all see the blood moon? I forgot it lol

 

[akt1985]

No clouds here, but the moon looks super cool. Did any of y'all see the blood moon? I forgot it lol

I had insomnia so I went outside and saw the blood moon Thursday night.

 

[172556]

RAPID straightening on that CC drop in Troy. It's in a horrible spot too..

Thanks for posting this. I have family living in the confines of this image, and while it was fairly close I can determine they weren't (significantly) hit.

 

[Evan]

Not seeing reports of damage in Troy proper at this point. Not saying there isn't any -- just haven't seen any reports to that effect yet.

 

[slickwillbo]

Any thoughts on the storms near Opelika, AL? I'm visting in GA just over the border.

 

[Clancy]

TOR for storm near Cusseta. Small but visible couplet.

 

[wx_guy]

So I'll talk more about this maybe tomorrow (after everything's done), but I've been playing with coding a simulated tornado outbreak. Basically it works like this --> I feed in a potential number of tornadoes for the outbreak, that's up to 40 in this case. From there, it picks a point inside the threat area, and based on the SPC Tornado Risk for the latest Outlook, it decides if there should be a tornado there or not, and if in a hatched area, it additionally has a chance to be a red X signifying an EF2+ tornado. For example, if the code picks a point in the 5% tornado risk area, there's a 5% chance it actually throws out a tornado (dot).

Here are three examples of the simulation. What is the point of this? I think it's instructive to see examples of "what verifies", because people always debate and talk about that before, during (ugh), and after events like this. Seeing realistic simulations of what it may look like helps, I think.

 

[172556]

Any thoughts on the storms near Opelika, AL? I'm visting in GA just over the border.

Last scan on MXX shows TOG north of Opelika, WSW of West Point.

Edit: Corrected to WSW, the Cusseta storm Clancy posted

 

[wx_guy]

3 hour stormNET

 

[slickwillbo]

Last scan on MXX shows TOG north of Opelika, WSW of West Point.

I'm in LaGrange, so a bit of time. Hopefully it dissipates. But getting ready.

 

[wx_guy]

Tornado threat looks increasingly confined to FL Panhandle and Southeast AL and Southwest GA.

 

[172556]

Tornado threat looks increasingly confined to FL Panhandle and Southeast AL and Southwest GA.

I'm still east of this in the panhandle. Going to be a long couple of hours.

 

[Teche]

The tornado dissipated almost immediately. Hoping it doesn't redevelop but I REALLY don't wanna jinx it.

 

[atrainguy]

Came across this post just now, kinda interesting seeing a visual of all the tornado warnings from last night and today (up to this being posted on X of course) combined. Last night was crazy in SE MO/NE AR, to make an understatement.

 

[Clancy]

There are like zero ingredients up here at this point, and yet...

Near Yorkville, Paulding Co., GA.

 

[wx_guy]

I know it's nowcast mode, but the past several HRRR runs have predicted this lull, but shows a ramp-up of activity soon (LLJ maybe?).

 

[Maxis_s]

Came across this post just now, kinda interesting seeing a visual of all the tornado warnings from last night and today (up to this being posted on X of course) combined. Last night was crazy in SE MO/NE AR, to make an understatement.

I still think yesterday outperformed today, but today didn't exactly underperform, except for the eastern part of the risk.