Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Clancy]

This system has turned into a huge precip shield, despite the weak forcing, this likely because of the EML being to weak and the vertical profile being too moist.

So far, it seems like scenario 1 is playing out, a 2020 Easter outbreak but with a semi discrete mode and supercells being more cyclical.

But this is far from over, the hrrr shows this precip shield drying out by 12am as the mid levels begin to desaturate.

This along with the LLJ maxing out with still plenty of instability left over, we could see a reinvigoration of activity, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a couple more significant tornadoes out of it.

Thus far I think Easter 2020 (which, notably, is one of the largest tornado outbreaks behind 3/31 and the Supers) is a very good comparison, and these tornadoes in Alabama are almost certainly taking advantage of boundaries. Nevertheless, we've many hours to go and I expect we are far from done.

 

[Teche]

Confirmed Tornado in Good Hope per Brad Travis. New Tornado Warning for Cullman, Morgan and Marshall Counties.

Good Hope, MS or AL?
Edit: Nevermind, all the storms are in AL now

 

[Blountwolf]

Good Hope, MS or AL?

AL

 

[AJS]

If I recall, the SPC said that the significant tornado threat wasn’t supposed to let up until around 3 AM.

 

[tornado examiner]

You were pretty adamant this morning that this wasn’t going to happen and a whole lot of posts got deleted saying it could….

I was saying an early cold front crash wasn’t gonna happen. And that didn’t. It was gonna go semi linear eventually.

 

[MikeP]

I saw the cancellation for Sumter on RadarScope before they did at 3340.

 

[Clancy]

Hard to make heads or tails but there's clearly some rotation going on. Would be sheltering if in Baileyton or Union Grove.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Arley AL storm wrapped up

 

[Equus]

Just got warned near Addison, probably a bit late but with these it's hard to know

 

[MikeP]

Would imagine the watch will get dropped for the northern MS area pretty soon. Edit - all of MS honestly...

 

[Muwx]

I was saying an early cold front crash wasn’t gonna happen. And that didn’t. It was gonna go semi linear eventually.

HRRR did a pretty good job despite you telling us to toss it about 15 times.

 

[shrubber256]

This was posted on the Gibbs Garden Center Facebook page. Just north of the Dodge City exit on I65.

 

[Justin Hindman]

Seems like Birmingham will be spared the city it self. Lot of heavy rain. I’m headed toward moundville to see if these storms try to recycle

 

[AJS]

I can’t get a good view from any radar right now. Damn it.

 

[eep]

Am I crazy or are the storms trying to become more discrete?

 

[Clancy]

Seems like storms are managing to take advantage of strong kinematics in northern AL despite weak surface-based instability and are still dropping tornadoes and, perhaps most impressively, are remaining de-facto discrete, tornado-producing supercells. Some extraordinary SRH values in west-central AL right now, 800 m2/s2.

 

[Jason Mills]

HRRR did a pretty good job despite you telling us to toss it about 15 times.

Take it to DMs. This isn't appropriate or constructive for discussion during a tornado event.

 

[jiharris0220]

All in all, once this blows through, I think it’s safe to say the high risk verified, plenty of significant to potentially violent tornadoes have occurred in Mississippi and at least one in north-western Alabama.

Obviously the room temperature iq weather weenies will be crying about this being a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency because they didn’t get their 4/27 2.0. Too bad “so sad” for them.

Sadly, there has been fatalities with both this and last nights events, it’s truly a shame it came to that outcome.

Fortunately, I believe with the help of advanced warnings, plus the fact these tornadoes have hit low population areas, a higher death toll has been avoided.

 

[AJS]

Am I crazy or are the storms trying to become more discrete?

Safe to say, i’m beginning to believe they are starting to tap into the environment.

 

[Blountwolf]