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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

US_Highway15 said:
33/40 doesn't think so. I don't know what equipment they're using, but it's definitely flawed. I'd beg James if I could, to pop on RadarScope instead of their studio stuff.
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Nexrad SRV has had it the whole time. I have no idea what's going on - operator using the wrong thing?

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This system has turned into a huge precip shield, despite the weak forcing, likely because of the EML being too weak and the vertical profile being too moist.

So far, it seems like scenario 1 is playing out, a 2020 Easter outbreak but with a semi discrete mode and supercells being more cyclical.

But this is far from over, the hrrr shows this precip shield drying out by 12am as the mid levels begin to desaturate.

This along with the LLJ maxing out with still plenty of instability left over, we could see a reinvigoration of activity, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a couple more significant tornadoes out of it.
 
Definitely can say now that a soggy, messy OWS large prevented what was initially forcast. (A wide spread violent tornado outbreak.)
No means a you know what B-word not by a long shot. But It could have been a lot worse.

That being said…we still have to wait to see what the overnight does.

I think that’s fairly reasonable to say right now. Right…?
 
tornado examiner said:
Definitely can say now that a soggy, messy OWS large prevented what was initially forcast. (A wide spread violent tornado outbreak.)
No means a you know what B-word not by a long shot. But It could have been a lot worse.

That being said…we still have to wait to see what the overnight does.

I think that’s fairly reasonable to say right now. Right…?
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It’s reasonable to say, but it is still a long way from being over, we will have to wait and see what the overnight brings.
 
tornado examiner said:
Definitely can say now that a soggy, messy OWS large prevented what was initially forcast. (A wide spread violent tornado outbreak.)
No means a you know what B-word not by a long shot. But It could have been a lot worse.

That being said…we still have to wait to see what the overnight does.

I think that’s fairly reasonable to say right now. Right…?
Click to expand...
You were pretty adamant this morning that this wasn’t going to happen and a whole lot of posts got deleted saying it could….
 
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