Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[brianc33710]

Velocity on the Tuscaloosa storm is looking more impressive. Inflow notch more evident

Tornado warning for NW Tuscaloosa County. This is north of Tuscaloosa city though.

 

[AJS]

i'm kinda surprised they didn't drop the high risk in the latest day 1 risk outlook, or at least shave off the northern extent of it.

I mean; look what happened in Mississippi. It was definitely warranted.

 

[akt1985]

Is anyone noticing a hook forming near Fayetteville, Tennessee? Or is it just me?

 

[Mr. Clark]

Am I missing something on the storm north of Athens? Not seeing anything on velocity, yet it's warned....

And the polygon was weird. 75% of the folks in the warned area had virtually no chance of being affected by the worst part of the storm.

 

[US_Highway15]

New MCD:

"SUMMARY...Multiple supercells capable of intense to potentially
violent tornadoes to persist into the evening.

DISCUSSION...A line of supercells continues from east-central
Alabama to south-central Mississippi. Most of these supercells have
a history of tornadoes including a few intense to potentially
violent tornadoes. The environment ahead of these supercells remains
very favorable for tornadoes with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC
mesoanalysis and 0-1km SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2 per GWX VWP. This
yields a STP value around 5 which is forecast to shift east with
these storms through the evening. Convective trends have shown rapid
strong to intense tornado development in supercells with unimpeded
inflow and circulation disruption when surrounding
showers/thunderstorms impede this inflow. Expect this pattern to
continue into the early evening with the greatest concern being
supercells with clear inflow of at least mid 60s dewpoints.

The threat for intense to potentially violent tornadoes will persist
from these supercells as long as they can remain ahead of the
developing line of storms across central Mississippi. Based on
current storm motions, they should remain ahead of this line of
storms into the early evening."

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Bwer on Tuscaloosa storm. Injesting more junk convection now

 

[Justin Hindman]

Seems like the storms die out every time once they get to i20 in misssissippi, the one in Alabama looking tough

 

[AJS]

This outbreak isn’t even close to over. Don’t let your guard down yet.

 

[LoopingHodos]

View attachment 36237
You rang?

Right on cue. Hopefully it resolves pretty quickly and runs out of fuel.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

View attachment 36238

Knock on wood but all that rain in central Alabama might be sparing Birmingham. This is the current environmental readings in Birmingham. Not that impressive in regards to CAPE or STP values.

This is so weird. I really hope a meteorologist corrects me and tells me i'm completely misreading the situation that is playing out, but I think the CAPE in your area is going to skyrocket as this system moves in.

 

[TornadoFan]

Another tornado on the ground near Soso.

 

[sak]

I mean; look what happened in Mississippi. It was definitely warranted.

we'll see. it's not like you can't have quite a few tornadoes in moderate risks, or even enhanced risks.

i don't see how you can look at atmospheric profile and the junk convection in places like jasper or cullman and think that a moderate risk wouldn't be sufficient. but that's just me.

 

[akt1985]

And we have our first Tornado Warning of the day for Middle Tennessee east of Murfreesboro. For now, it’s radar indicated.

 

[JayF]

Is anyone noticing a hook forming near Fayetteville, Tennessee? Or is it just me?

I am not seeing a hook. There is an updraft but looks more like straightline rather than a rotating storm.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Too much junk convection filling in on the inflow of the Tuscaloosa storm.

Impressive couplet though actually.

 

[SmokeEater]

Tuscaloosa couplet tightening up fast.

 

[JayF]

I am not seeing a hook. There is an updraft but looks more like straightline rather than a rotating storm.

I said that and they issued a TW for it.

 

[Chris3024]

cell near brilliant is trying to reform inflow notch

 

[Clancy]

Too much junk convection filling in on the inflow of the Tuscaloosa storm.

Impressive couplet though actually. View attachment 36243

Despite that, intense couplet continues.

 

[The Nino]

Got to love weather, sure seems like we have dodged a bullet so far relative to the hype. Hope it stays that way, it’s nice a rainy in Huntsville with low thunder.