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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Worth remembering it's only about 1 PM CDT right now, and we already have all this activity. Lots of daylight left. Sun is out over here in west GA as well, a very rare sight for a substantial severe weather event.
 
New AFD from Birmingham:

"Broad ridging was centered over the Bahamas and Southeast Florida
while a broad mid-level trough was over the South-Central Plains.
A deep occluded low was positioned over Northwest Wisconsin. A
strong cold front extended south from the occluded low well to our
north that extends south and southwest through Illinois and
extending toward the ArkLaTex Region early this afternoon. Global
and regional numerical models are in solid agreement with a
120-140 upper level jet moving over much of the western and
central counties later this afternoon into tonight. This jet max
corresponds to a strong mid-level impulse that will round the
trough base over Eastern Texas early this afternoon and swing east
over the ArkLaTex this afternoon and continue east over
Mississippi and Alabama this evening and overnight. Many
ingredients are in place, as sampled by local and regional
soundings from this morning up to the present time. Abundant wind
shear exists with more than sufficient instability as surface
temperatures continue to warm into the 70s across all but the far
northern and northeast counties as of this writing. Some locations
across the south and east will likely see highs in the lower 80s
later this afternoon. A deepening plume of rich low-level moisture
is continuing to advect into the area from the south with dew
points in the 60s generally west of Interstate 65 at this time
with readings in the upper 60s across the far western counties
now. The moist environment will allow cloud base heights to lower
through the late afternoon and overnight, making it easier for
circulations aloft to extend down towards the surface.

Expect increasing clouds from the west with windy conditions
intensifying through the afternoon and into the night as a heavy
convective line of storms gradually approaches from the west.
Favorable conditions exists for some supercell structures to
develop and exist ahead of the convective line, these storms will
have the best strong/long duration tornado potential along with
the greatest large hail risk. Damaging straight-line winds along
with a QLCS embedded tornado risk will accompany the line of
storms that is expected to gradually grow upscale into a long
squall line with time through the afternoon and evening as strong
forcing aloft moves eastward into the state. Winds will remain
gusty from the south with speeds from 15-30 mph and higher gusts
from 20-40 mph at times even ahead of the heavy convection. High
temperatures will range from the lower 70s far northwest to the
lower 80s east and southeast."
 
TORE for the Tylertown tornado.
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1250 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

MSC147-151830-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-250315T1830Z/
Walthall MS-
1250 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR rural northern Walthall Mississippi...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN WALTHALL COUNTY...

At 1249 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
over Salem, or 18 miles west of Columbia, moving northeast at 50 mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for rural northern Walthall Mississippi. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Walthall County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take
immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 3134 9009 3133 9008 3134 9004 3124 9004
3117 9003 3114 9018 3119 9026 3135 9013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 230DEG 42KT 3122 9014

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
 
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