Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[UpperLevelLOL]

New Trey video

 

[MikeP]

Anyone know if/when BMX will launch a balloon?

 

[sak]

Could this system become more linear than expected?

i would argue that it becoming linear at this point is expected (at least by me). i still expect some tornadoes, but i don’t think alabama will see a repeat of 4/27/11 or really anything even close to it which wasn’t really my outlook 24 hours ago.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Monroe LA under a tornado warning now

 

[buckeye05]

So are the CAMS in or out in terms of relevance when it comes to convective evolution at this juncture? I’m not trying to be snarky here I just genuinely want to know.

 

[Tyler Penland]

Anyone know if/when BMX will launch a balloon?

I believe they are launching one at 18z.

 

[Clancy]

A troubling image, if ever there was one.

 

[Jpgood97]

N AL is going to need some pretty serious waa imo. Only 9:38 so there’s time, but it will need to happen sooner than later. Forecasted helecity is still favorable for north part of the state

 

[AJS]

i would argue that it becoming linear at this point is expected (at least by me). i still expect some tornadoes, but i don’t think alabama will see a repeat of 4/27/11 or really anything even close to it which wasn’t really my outlook 24 hours ago.

Definitely not a repeat of 4/27/11, but we are still most likely going to see multiple tornadoes on the ground and are easily capable of producing significant damage.

 

[AJS]

A troubling image, if ever there was one.

That much clearing is never a good thing to see when a major tornado outbreak is about to unfold.

 

[Equus]

Managed to get a lot more sleep than expected other than a brief break to watch the 4am storm here, ready to lock in for the long day ahead

 

[jiharris0220]

Jesus

 

[AJS]

Jesus

I’m not gonna lie, I had a feeling the damage was gonna be bad, but I honestly wasn’t expecting that level of bad. Contextual damage looks particularly intense.

 

[Mike S]

ANOTHER reminder - downsize your graphics please

 

[JPWX]

Let's quit focusing on storm mode and just wait to see what happens. Bottomline is it's gonna get rough and bad

 

[sak]

Who is it that said throw the cams out the day of and do now casting?

the thing is… if you throw out the models and “nowcast” you see the same thing… a line has already formed on the MS River.

i am watching the CAMs to see if they weaken/dissolve the line but if it stays intact, it’s definitely a good sign.

 

[Kds86z]

I’m not gonna lie, I had a feeling the damage was gonna be bad, but I honestly wasn’t expecting that level of bad. Contextual damage looks particularly intense.

No wonder fatalities there

 

[ColdFront]

Just summarizing some of Trey’s points so far:

Current convective mess currently west of the risk area is a bit of a fly in the ointment as it’s going to hamper the warm sector in NW MS/SW TN.

The trough isn’t actually as negatively tilted as previous Runs, and the main jet has been slowed down a little. Geometry has slightly changed and trended slightly less favorable to a true upper echelon event. Would cause probably not as much discrete activity in the OWS, but with the broad warm sector there’s enough to see robust supercells. Northern warm sector will probably get pinched off as the event goes forward.

I really think this is a pretty good step back from what we were looking at yesterday and 2 days ago.

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[buckeye05]

Of course we’ll wait and see, but it’s perfectly fair and relevant to discuss these last minute developments imo. A shift in overall storm mode has significant implications.