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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Clancy said:
Not what you like to see at 9 AM. Best case scenario would be linear/broken line, which would still be very dangerous but better than the other outcome, which would be widespread activity in the warm sector. HRRR runs have been basically re-introducing discrete activity across AL.
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Nice little confluence band setting up along 65 there. Anything like that that forms is gonna be a big big problem.
 
warneagle said:
Nice little confluence band setting up along 65 there. Anything like that that forms is gonna be a big big problem.
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Yeah, I think this is probably a models not quite capturing the environment situation, as much as I want this event to flop hard.
 
ChatGPT analysis of current observations and model data:

Observed Soundings:


• 12Z (7:00 AM CDT) Sounding from NWS Huntsville: The observed sounding data reveals:


• Mixed-Layer CAPE (MLCAPE): Approximately 1500 J/kg, indicating moderate atmospheric instability.


• 0-1 km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH): Values around 350 m²/s², reflecting strong low-level wind shear favorable for tornado development.


• Hodograph Structure: Displays a pronounced, curved shape, indicative of a highly sheared environment supportive of supercell formation.





Model Forecasts vs. Observations:


• Consistency: The observed parameters closely align with earlier model forecasts, such as those from the NAM 3-km and HRRR models, which projected MLCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-1 km SRH exceeding 300 m²/s².


• Implications: This alignment suggests that the atmosphere is evolving as anticipated, maintaining a high potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes.





Current Conditions and Outlook:


• Surface Observations: Temperatures are in the mid-60s°F with dewpoints in the low 60s°F, contributing to a moist and unstable environment.


• Radar and Satellite: Early indications of convective development are present to the west, with expectations of storm initiation in the coming hours.





Conclusion:





The current atmospheric conditions, corroborated by both observed soundings and model forecasts, indicate that northern Alabama remains on track for a significant severe weather event today. Residents should remain vigilant, monitor updates from the National Weather Service, and have multiple means to receive weather warnings.
 
The Nino said:
ChatGPT analysis of current observations and model data:

Observed Soundings:


• 12Z (7:00 AM CDT) Sounding from NWS Huntsville: The observed sounding data reveals:


• Mixed-Layer CAPE (MLCAPE): Approximately 1500 J/kg, indicating moderate atmospheric instability.


• 0-1 km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH): Values around 350 m²/s², reflecting strong low-level wind shear favorable for tornado development.


• Hodograph Structure: Displays a pronounced, curved shape, indicative of a highly sheared environment supportive of supercell formation.





Model Forecasts vs. Observations:


• Consistency: The observed parameters closely align with earlier model forecasts, such as those from the NAM 3-km and HRRR models, which projected MLCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-1 km SRH exceeding 300 m²/s².


• Implications: This alignment suggests that the atmosphere is evolving as anticipated, maintaining a high potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes.





Current Conditions and Outlook:


• Surface Observations: Temperatures are in the mid-60s°F with dewpoints in the low 60s°F, contributing to a moist and unstable environment.


• Radar and Satellite: Early indications of convective development are present to the west, with expectations of storm initiation in the coming hours.





Conclusion:





The current atmospheric conditions, corroborated by both observed soundings and model forecasts, indicate that northern Alabama remains on track for a significant severe weather event today. Residents should remain vigilant, monitor updates from the National Weather Service, and have multiple means to receive weather warnings.
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Let’s use actual human forecasters and Mets instead of hallucinating LLMs
 
For a little levity this morning, James Spann let us all know at the end of his morning weather briefing that he had spaghetti for breakfast this morning and that it was very good :)
 
All CAMS are really latching onto this more linear look. Whether this is an actual signal, or the models not handling the environment correctly remains to be seen. This would still be a high impact event verbatim, as you don’t need perfectly discrete cells, see last night for example, but if the OWS doesn’t convect properly and it’s mainly a dry line/ surface boundary event, it will lower its ceiling some. HRRR is currently the most aggressive. Undeniably, there has been a shift in the CAMS, but we have to balance that with nowcasting.

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David in SW Blount said:
Has anyone ever evacuated from an oncoming, confirmed large tornado or considered evacuating by driving away at a right angle? If and only if no other supercells are threatening an escape route? While we have a basement, it's raised above ground on two sides. Of course, my biggest worry is that we would drive away and something else would develop in our evacuation area really quickly, and then we have no shelter in a car.
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Yes, I have considered it. I won’t make recommendations for other people but some things I consider are knowing my local roads and current traffic conditions +detours, the type of shelter I have available if I stay put, distance, speed, track and intensity of the storm + other storms in the area and current conditions at my location.
 
ColdFront said:
All CAMS are really latching onto this more linear look. Whether this is an actual signal, or the models not handling the environment correctly remains to be seen. This would still be a high impact event verbatim, as you don’t need perfectly discrete cells, see last night for example, but if the OWS doesn’t convect properly and it’s mainly a dry line/ surface boundary event, it will lower its ceiling some. HRRR is currently the most aggressive. Undeniably, there has been a shift in the CAMS, but we have to balance that with nowcasting.

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Honestly i’m not sure how today is gonna unfold with the supercells. Seems like the last few runs have been a bit different.
 
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