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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

JPWX said:
Low Level Lapse Rate. A lapse rate is the rate of temperature change with height. The faster the temperature decreases with height, the "steeper" the lapse rate and the more "unstable" the atmosphere becomes.
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Is this somewhat related to cold air aloft? I've heard that spoken about as an ingredient for severe weather.
 
wx_guy said:
So I fell asleep hard last night because I plan to be awake tonight for my friends and family in eastern AL. Can anyone give me a cliff notes version of what transpired last night?
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event performed about as expected. quite a few significant tornadoes, with arkansas and missouri being hardest hit.

maybe overperformed a little in MO/ARK, underperformed in TN/MS. only one rogue storm really got going in MS, and the Memphis NWS area escaped relatively unscathed sfter an ominous few hours to their northwest.

definitely were quite a few significant tornadoes but the good news is that it seems as if the biggest population centers (memphis, st louis, chicago, indianapolis, little rock) escaped any major tornadoes.
 
VERY ominous wording from BMX AFD this morning at 4:30. Didn’t know if it had already been posted, but wanted to highlight this portion:


The significant tornado threat will really begin to ramp up around
noon, when the second surface low begins to develop near the
ArkLaTex region, ejecting into the lower Midwest. High-res guidance
continues to indicate rapid destabilization across the warm sector,
with a large portion of our region remaining relatively unphased by
the early convection. In fact, this morning convection could even
aid these afternoon supercells by planting residual boundaries for
them to latch onto. Once the warm nose overhead erodes, and storms
are able to tap into the full environment overhead, any storm that
starts to spin will be capable of producing a tornado. Any one of
these tornadoes will also have the capacity of become strong,
violent, and long-lived.
 
sak said:
event performed about as expected. quite a few significant tornadoes, with arkansas and missouri being hardest hit.

maybe overperformed a little in MO/ARK, underperformed in TN/MS. only one rogue storm really got going in MS, and the Memphis NWS area escaped relatively unscathed sfter an ominous few hours to their northwest.

definitely were quite a few significant tornadoes but the good news is that it seems as if the biggest population centers (memphis, st louis, chicago, indianapolis, little rock) escaped any major tornadoes.
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St. Louis metro definitely got hit, maybe not catastrophically, but there were strong tornadoes doing damage in the suburbs.
 
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