Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[buckeye05]

I have to agree that the last couple HRRRs do look a bit messier, but I don’t know if it’s just a negligible difference that I’m reading into too much.

 

[jiharris0220]

I have to agree that the last couple HRRRs do look a bit messier, but I don’t know if it’s just a negligible difference that I’m reading into too much.

At this point it’s all now casting, looking at the cams at this range will just create more confusion than anything.

It’s now the time to look at real time obs and trends to get an actual idea of what the day will do.

On that note, supercell over Kisatchie needs watching.

 

[buckeye05]

At this point it’s all now casting, looking at the cams at this range will just create more confusion than anything.

It’s now the time to look at real time obs and trends to get an actual idea of what the day will do.

On that note, supercell over Kisatchie needs watching.
View attachment 35970

Ok good to know. I know there’s a certain point before the where looking at CAM runs becomes less relevant than the actual obs, but just wasn’t sure when that point in time starts.

 

[tornado examiner]

The fact that the environment is already observed as being more volatile than the models is enough to make me not look at them now.

 

[Smokedevil]

So far so good. Let us hope it's just a bunch of radar indicated rotations and not radar confirmed.
Edit. Some fairly big hailers. Mostly quarter sized so far.

 

[tornado examiner]

Independence county…idk which state but that’s intense muddy damage.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

The radar over much of the warm sector sure is quiet. What is there is quickly on the way out. It's already nearly 70 degrees at my location and the sun isn't up good yet. The atmosphere will be pristine across the majority of the warm sector today. Forget powder keg. We are going to be sitting on a small nuclear warhead.

 

[Richardjacks]

As of right now, there is no where near the amount of junk convection to spoil instability that will develop as the surface low deepens to our west later this morning.

 

[jiharris0220]

New outlook

 

[tornado examiner]

So this is the first time the spc has ever specified EF4+ tornadoes in an outlook. WTF

 

[Smokedevil]

If nothing else, there WILL be flooding rains. That's some crazy heavy precip with these storms.

 

[Richardjacks]

Dewpoints are already in the upper 60's in east Mississippi. They will climb higher in alabama, but probably some of that wil get mixed in so the increase may not be as obvious at first

 

[joshoctober16]

well with what im seeing i think we are now likely going to have a high end Historic outbreak (level under super outbreak)

 

[tornado examiner]

I’m not buying the HRRR cold front smash. It hasn’t appeared with any other models has it?

 

[AJS]

Don’t remember the last time seeing the SPC use this in one of their outlooks.

 

[Smokedevil]

Another tor warning near Monroe Louisiana.
It may be trying to get going.

 

[Ledian]

Hmm...could this line of severe storms from Natchitoches to Bolivar cause any trouble for development in north/northeast MS later, or was this expected and it will likely clear before noon?

 

[TheSuckZone]

So this is the first time the spc has ever specified EF4+ tornadoes in an outlook. WTF

A seasonably high moisture-rich and unstable airmass will expand
across parts of the Deep South and contribute to a dangerous tornado
outbreak featuring long-track intense to potentially violent
tornadoes (EF3-EF4+).

 

[jiharris0220]

I will say this, today will be bad, how bad however depends on the spatial extent of OWS convention.

Scenario 1: supercells stay limited close to the dryline/qlcs and I can see more or less severe 2020 Easter tornado outbreak scenario.

Scenario 2: supercells initiate halfway across the warm sector and a substantial tornado outbreak occurs with multiple long trackers likely.

Scenario 3: supercells initiate throughout the entire warm sector which may or may not push today into super outbreak territory.

 

[Argus]

Seeing as 4/27/11 was actually a nice day here, I almost didn't pull Koko out this morning, seeing as similar conditions are expected here during the daytime hours. Overnight though.