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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

tornado examiner said:
Everything but LLLR is currently outpacing the earlier models.

What is LLLR?
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Low Level Lapse Rate. A lapse rate is the rate of temperature change with height. The faster the temperature decreases with height, the "steeper" the lapse rate and the more "unstable" the atmosphere becomes.
 
JPWX said:
Low Level Lapse Rate. A lapse rate is the rate of temperature change with height. The faster the temperature decreases with height, the "steeper" the lapse rate and the more "unstable" the atmosphere becomes.
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Aaaah, I figured just wanted to verify. I’m guessing that the only reason those are the low parameter right now while everything else is over performing is due to an obvious lack of heating cause, of course…still early morning.
 
tornado examiner said:
Aaaah, I figured just wanted to verify. I’m guessing that the only reason those are the low parameter right now while everything else is over performing is due to an obvious lack of heating cause, of course…still early morning.
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Should have a better idea of what the day will unfold like as we get later into the morning hours.
 
Richardjacks said:
The hrrr shows several hours of the ows across much of central Alabama storm free later this morning. It wants to develop convection right as the instability increases..but prob prematurely with a cap or eml in place. Morning soundings will start to give us a clue.
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Are we looking for boundaries this afternoon for some of this potential Ows to initiate in?
 
Very sad to hear there have been fatalities. Deeply hoping there are no more. Also very concerned by the lack of major convection over Alabama this morning.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
The latest HRRR run shows a little less OWS supercells than previous runs. Although I wouldn't count that as gospel. Real time analysis and boundary locations will be the most important thing today. Satellite imaginary this late morning early afternoon will be big for us.
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I really doubt that matters much in fact less storms is likely worse. It may preclude them from upping tornado probabilities though.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
The latest HRRR run shows a little less OWS supercells than previous runs. Although I wouldn't count that as gospel. Real time analysis and boundary locations will be the most important thing today. Satellite imaginary this late morning early afternoon will be big for us.
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I certainly hope it's onto something, but I've noticed over the years sometimes HRRR has this wobble where it decreases convective coverage and/or intensity during some of the morning runs, before correcting in later runs.
 
On a side note, here's something i've noticed this year. Is anyone else seeing that a lot of NWS offices are no longer listing the most populated places first in locations impacted lists for warnings, and seem to now be going by closest to furthest? or southwest to northeast or something like that?
 
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