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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

This post is principally aimed at Georgian board members: 18Z HRRR is nasty, and in particular, a seriously concerning solution for Atlanta and West Georgia. Deep, moisture-fueled convection in the presence of alarmingly high instability and the already well-discussed extreme helicity will support a threat for multiple highly-dangerous, intense supercells across much of Western Georgia, including Atlanta. With STP values of 3-5 expected across much of the western 1/3rd of the state, I just want to re-emphasize for us Georgia folks to think about the kinds of measures you might need to take as we face a threat for strong tornadoes of a magnitude and areal expanse that we're not particularly used to.
CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2025031418-HRRR-FLT2-prec-radar-23-39-100.gifCODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2025031418-HRRR-FLT2-con-uphlysw-23-39-100.gif1741982830788.png1741982835554.png
 
Maxis_s said:
It honestly leads me to believe that their Day 2 outlook is extremely conservative, which is incredibly worrying for what the Day 1 outlook will look like, and most importantly how bad tomorrow will end up being.
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IIRC, (and can someone please check for me? I would greatly appreciate it!) the other two D2 Highs were also fairly small as well. Perhaps they're hedging their bets just in case something manages to step in to cause an essentially last-minute downtrend...?
 
Fred Gossage said:
I will go on record to formally state that the placement of the northern edge of the current HIGH is not only dangerously wrong, but it will cause fatalities tomorrow... and I don't care who is mad or offended by my saying so. I am already seeing a significant number of general public comments of "I'm not in the pink. No threat here." and they are tuning out. Some of them are tuning out for the duration because they actually believe that just because they aren't in the 3rd ever Day 2 HIGH in recorded United States history at this moment, that they are not at any threat. They won't be tuned back in when the data forces the SPC forecasters on duty to wake up to the reality of the actual placement of the outbreak and expand the HIGH northward. Unless the NSSL WRF was followed blindly, there was an overwhelming data signal this morning to pull the HIGH all the way to the state line for the northern border. Even the HREF probabilistic guidance that includes that NSSL WRF run has steadily focused north and northwest of the HIGH. I believe the southern extent of it is perfectly fine and needed, but that thing needs to include Tupelo, Iuka, the Shoals, Athens, Cullman, Hamilton, Decatur, Huntsville, and Ardmore... and there is still a signal for violent type tracks into southern middle TN.
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i think they are viewing it as a more conditional threat based on what the morning convection does. the SPC live stream that ended a while ago explained that confidence in the severe threat diminishes as you move north but that areas into TN and even KY could be anywhere from a marginal risk to a 5/5 high risk... but it's just more conditional at the moment.

if confidence grows, the risk will expand northward. makes sense to me.
 
Clancy said:
This post is principally aimed at Georgian board members: 18Z HRRR is nasty, and in particular, a seriously concerning solution for Atlanta and West Georgia. Deep, moisture-fueled convection in the presence of alarmingly high instability and the already well-discussed extreme helicity will support a threat for multiple highly-dangerous, intense supercells across much of Western Georgia, including Atlanta. With STP values of 3-5 expected across much of the western 1/3rd of the state, I just want to re-emphasize for us Georgia folks to think about the kinds of measures you might need to take as we face a threat for strong tornadoes of a magnitude and areal expanse that we're not particularly used to.
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That modeling of a more powerful helicity swath right through the Atlanta Metro... Let's very much hope that is a worst case scenario of the worst case scenarios here.
 
Clancy said:
This post is principally aimed at Georgian board members: 18Z HRRR is nasty, and in particular, a seriously concerning solution for Atlanta and West Georgia. Deep, moisture-fueled convection in the presence of alarmingly high instability and the already well-discussed extreme helicity will support a threat for multiple highly-dangerous, intense supercells across much of Western Georgia, including Atlanta. With STP values of 3-5 expected across much of the western 1/3rd of the state, I just want to re-emphasize for us Georgia folks to think about the kinds of measures you might need to take as we face a threat for strong tornadoes of a magnitude and areal expanse that we're not particularly used to.
View attachment 35543View attachment 35544View attachment 35545View attachment 35546
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Oh man, we are right on the bullseye here near the border of South Fulton and Northern Coweta counties. As you mentioned this is rare for us, and we have not seen this high of a tornado risk here in Georgia since that infamous date I believe.

EDIT: I don't recall ever doing this before, but we have family in Tampa and may head on out in the morning for a weekend visit LOL
 
Maxis_s said:
I believe that's the biggest MDT risk ever at 171,638 square miles. Can someone double check for me?
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Easter 2020 had a HUGE MDT Risk area. I don't know its sq mis though. @WesL I got the "SPAM" message & made my post longer. Edit 2 (to keep from flooding the site) today's MDT risk has a 45% high wind risk. Tomorrow's High Risk [for now] only has 30. Will that change? I would think those risks are there too!
 
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Brandon said:
I saw a house here where they forgot nuts for the frame to slab anchor bolts...luckily caught before drywall went up, but it makes me wonder how many got overlooked given how quickly they have been building around here. The good news is a lot of garage in-ground storm shelters and reinforced master closets have been going in during new construction.
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I don't built houses for a living but if I did I would use extra anchoring and hurricane clips. I wouldn't use other cheap materials either.
 
Just FYI --- > On Google, the 50 hottest "trending now" topics, according to Google Trends...where does the weather rate on it? 3rd? 5th?

"St Louis Weather" (which is imminent) is #43.

"Storm Prediction Center" is #50.

And that's it.
 
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