Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Brandon]

View attachment 35531
Well then…that’s a first…

Alright, that's enough internet for me today.

 

[tornado examiner]

Is that what it’s actually meaning though? Genuine question.

Definitely not, it’s likely coincidental…but still ominous.

 

[Atlantic]

Oh boy here we go.

Model tornados now.

I wonder when the strong storms are expected to start.

 

[Brice W]

I think it does mean a hook echo but there's no way that's a legitimate debris ball. It can't simulate debris. Still a scary look.

Figured as much. Just seemed too unrealistic but the fact it has that clear of a hook echo and inflow is something that is rarely ever seen I’m sure.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z HRRR simulated radar loop along with the Updraft helicity loop.

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[klouzek7079]

I've got a plan in place for my family and have been telling everybody to also have a plan. The town I live in has also opened up churches with basements as storm shelters. It's good to see other people in town take this seriously.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[AJS]

Has the SPC ever issued a 60% hatched risk for tornadoes? Tomorrow is increasingly looking like that could very well happen.

 

[Tennie]

Has the SPC ever issued a 60% hatched risk for tornadoes? Tomorrow is increasingly looking like that could very well happen.

They did for 4/7/2006.

 

[lake.effect]

18z HRRR is still really bad, but a bit messier than previous runs. Still a scary run, but additional convection might - just might - reduce the ceiling of the event a tad.

 

[akt1985]

I sure hope the long track, strong/violent tornadoes avoid the Huntsville metro area. So many more homes and businesses have been built in outlying areas of Madison and Limestone County since 2011. Many homes were put up so quickly their construction quality is questionable.

 

[Maxis_s]

Has the SPC ever issued a 60% hatched risk for tornadoes? Tomorrow is increasingly looking like that could very well happen.

April 7, 2006, issued by Broyles. It didn't verify but it wasn't a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.
I don't see it happening. They would have to be certain a super outbreak would occur.

 

[Brice W]

Has the SPC ever issued a 60% hatched risk for tornadoes? Tomorrow is increasingly looking like that could very well happen.

4/7/2006. I don’t see a chance but there’s a decent chance for a 45%

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z HRRR is still really bad, but a bit messier than previous runs. Still a scary run, but additional convection might - just might - reduce the ceiling of the event a tad.

Yeah that crossed through my head when I saw it as well. I still think it's enough spacing though imo

 

[Matt Grantham]

18z HRRR simulated radar loop along with the Updraft helicity loop. View attachment 35534View attachment 35535

Folks this is a nightmare about to unfold.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Yeah that crossed through my head when I saw it as well.

thats the hrrr, it overconvects these events quite a bit, just note that

 

[JayF]

I am about to start my Midterm that has to be completed today. Anyone want to get the HRRR helicity data and reflectivity for Central Illinois for tonight's round of storms.

 

[Blountwolf]

I sure hope the long track, strong/violent tornadoes avoid the Huntsville metro area. So many more homes and businesses have been built in outlying areas of Madison and Limestone County since 2011. Many homes were put up so quickly their construction quality is questionable.

True everywhere they build those McMansions. The quality of new construction is just subpar. The designs are often better, but the execution of those when built doesn't match the design improvements.

 

[AJS]

18z HRRR simulated radar loop along with the Updraft helicity loop. View attachment 35534View attachment 35535