Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Equus]

I think we kinda expected it, but it's really scary to actually see it

 

[Clancy]

Well. They did it. Significant expansion to the MDT as well. Much of Metro Atlanta now under the Red.

 

[Kds86z]

That said 5/20/19 was killed mainly by the failure of the extra-persistent cap to break, which doesn't seem likely to be the case here. The list of limiting factors is awfully short right now.

Yep. I remember that day..

 

[Atlantic]

And there it is on site:

 

[Brice W]

I think we kinda expected it, but it's really scary to actually see it

Expect this to be expanded as well.

 

[Kds86z]

4/27 shades..

 

[JPWX]

That's a lot further south than I expected

 

[treypops]

That's a lot further south than I expected

Agreed

 

[Brice W]

That's a lot further south than I expected

Yeah. I mean it did just get released. Like I said I am expecting them to expand this overtime.

 

[Maxis_s]

First non-Broyles Day 2 HIGH as well.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

 

[Bulkshear]

That's a lot further south than I expected

Me too…This doesn’t seem appropriately placed from my prospective but I am not a MET. I read through the discussion and they seem to cut off the appreciable tornado threat north of the TN line.. Thats totally cool by me.

 

[Brandon]

Well, I had a good 5yr break from this stuff when I lived overseas, so this is a nice welcome home present.

 

[slenker]

With what we’ve been seeing on CAMs as well, I do fully expect the high risk to be expanded in size a bit when D1 comes, at least based on what we currently know and see. A 45% risk is not out of the question here.

 

[RollTide18]

3rd time this decade the 20/59 corridor has been under a high risk

 

[tornado examiner]

I bet, with high confidence, this gets expanded and UPPED to 45% tornado risk some time tomorrow.

 

[Brandon]

With what we’ve been seeing on CAMs as well, I do fully expect the high risk to be expanded in size a bit when D1 comes, at least based on what we currently know and see. A 45% risk is not out of the question here.

I fully expect it to go up to near the AL/TN line, if not above it by tomorrow.

 

[Brice W]

View attachment 35513

And it wouldn’t be your upper-echelon severe weather day without THOSE cities in the path.

 

[tornado examiner]

Also it is very verrry interesting to note that the spc removed the 45% sig wind risk for tomorrow.

 

[lake.effect]

As others noted above, placement seems a bit off, too far south. I expect a northwest expansion in the next updates to include parts of NW Alabama and NE Mississippi, perhaps also a southern expansion down to Montgomery / Hattiesburg towards the border of Louisiana.