Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[sak]

30% on the 24H and 4H calibrated probs on 12Z HREF. Can't remember ever seeing 30% 4-hour probs on HREF before.
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how can the chances be higher in a 4 hour window than the 24 hour window that includes that 4 hour window?

 

[lake.effect]

Does anyone have access to the Nadocast probabilities for today and tomorrow? They have not posted their maps on twitter/X yet...

 

[Clancy]

12Z HREF member UH. Pops a small 90th percentile corridor over MS and strong agreement in numerous tracks throughout the northern 2/3rds of Alabama into much of western and northern Georgia. Tapers off later Sunday morning, but still potent in the Gulf Coast/Coastal Plain.

 

[Maxis_s]

Does anyone have access to the Nadocast probabilities for today and tomorrow? They have not posted their maps on twitter/X yet...

Their own website hasn't had anything since February too.

 

[Clancy]

how can the chances be higher in a 4 hour window than the 24 hour window that includes that 4 hour window?

Because the values over longer time periods are averaged out and heavily contoured. HREF/GEFS calibrated values often tend to run fairly low, especially in more marginal scenarios, so seeing them showing up in both is rather concerning.

 

[chasestormz39]

Trey's video, wow. Not sure who else watched that but he's not one to hype anything. He's awfully concerned for Saturday.

 

[The Nino]

Trey's video, wow. Not sure who else watched that but he's not one to hype anything. He's awfully concerned for Saturday.

who is this Trey fella yall keep referring to?

 

[ColdFront]

who is this Trey fella yall keep referring to?

Convective chronicles on YouTube

 

[Tennie]

Convective chronicles on YouTube

Here's the link, if you're curious:

Convective Chronicles

One-stop shop for in-depth forecast discussions and case studies for upcoming and past severe weather events across the United States, as well as easy-to-understand educational videos on meteorology with a focus on severe storms forecasting. My name is Trey Greenwood, and I have been chasing...

www.youtube.com

 

[TornadoFan]

68 MPH gust SE of Elk City, Oklahoma.

 

[chasestormz39]

Once you've discovered Trey (Convective Chronicles) you'll thank us later. His forecast videos, analysis, and teaching moments are lifechanging. Dude knows his stuff. I'm already a pretty experience storm chaser over the last 15 years or so, but I have learned so much from watching a number of his videos.

 

[Tornadamus]

Hey guys, long time reader here and made an account a little while back but don’t ever post much. Don’t want to clutter up the thread so won’t post much from here on out, just praying for you all in the risk areas and hope everybody stays safe. Thank you for all the people here keeping this thread (and many others over the years) going.

God bless you all.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 35506

What am i looking for,

 

[sak]

What am i looking for,

my eyes were drawn to the visible blowing dust (i think) through texas and oklahoma

 

[Aubie99]

Hey guys, long time reader here and made an account a little while back but don’t ever post much. Don’t want to clutter up the thread so won’t post much from here on out, just praying for you all in the risk areas and hope everybody stays safe. Thank you for all the people here keeping this thread (and many others over the years) going.

God bless you all.

Same here. Appreciate all the great knowledge, info, and updates

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Who all is chasing central Alabama tommorow?

 

[Kds86z]

Who all is chasing central Alabama tommorow?

You?

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Clancy]

15Z RAP has continued to intensify the degree of destabilization present in West GA late tomorrow night, with some worrying STP values in the West Metro.