• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Grand Poo Bah said:
I don't think the general public is taking this threat seriously. The amount of pushback i'm getting on other social media platforms regarding the potential of this system is distressing. We have become a culture where comforting lies are elevated above the truth. The models are dropping tornadic supercells right over 4 or 5 major metros... on a Saturday afternoon. During several proms, St. Patty's day celebrations, Spring Break, and the SEC basketball playoffs.

It might be time for weather professionals and emergency first responders to start emotionally preparing for a catastrophe. It seems like it's basically a coin flip away at this point. For those in here who will be affected, i'll be praying for you and your colleagues. In the wise words of Mr. Rogers, remember to look for the helpers.
Click to expand...
I think the wording and messaging will be massively elevated and heightened this morning. A Day 2 High Risk is looking pretty likely.
 
This isn't just the HRRR being the HRRR or whatever. The 0z run took one storm south of NOLA overnight and did feedback upon itself until it developed a feedback-induced shortwave that bred that big rain complex, and it still did the tornado outbreak with a violent supercell up into Limestone and Lawrence Counties of AL. This run doesn't do that, has more of the expected EML capping over the warm sector, rapidly pushes those WAA showers northward with the surging LLJ late morning, and a rapidly destabilizing high-octane air mass behind it. The 6z HRRR, imo, is closer to reality for what to expect out of the synoptics and global teleconnections that we have in place with the Saturday system.
 
Fred Gossage said:
This isn't just the HRRR being the HRRR or whatever. The 0z run took one storm south of NOLA overnight and did feedback upon itself until it developed a feedback-induced shortwave that bred that big rain complex, and it still did the tornado outbreak with a violent supercell up into Limestone and Lawrence Counties of AL. This run doesn't do that, has more of the expected EML capping over the warm sector, rapidly pushes those WAA showers northward with the surging LLJ late morning, and a rapidly destabilizing high-octane air mass behind it. The 6z HRRR, imo, is closer to reality for what to expect out of the synoptics and global teleconnections that we have in place with the Saturday system.
Click to expand...
That's honestly horrifying looking at it. It's like a slow motion disaster we know is coming.
 
Fred Gossage said:
This isn't just the HRRR being the HRRR or whatever. The 0z run took one storm south of NOLA overnight and did feedback upon itself until it developed a feedback-induced shortwave that bred that big rain complex, and it still did the tornado outbreak with a violent supercell up into Limestone and Lawrence Counties of AL. This run doesn't do that, has more of the expected EML capping over the warm sector, rapidly pushes those WAA showers northward with the surging LLJ late morning, and a rapidly destabilizing high-octane air mass behind it. The 6z HRRR, imo, is closer to reality for what to expect out of the synoptics and global teleconnections that we have in place with the Saturday system.
Click to expand...
The 6z HRRR also confirms the suspicions I've had for a few days, that the effective-warm-front-HP-flavor violent >EF3 potential does indeed extend up into southern middle TN, at minimum, to the Highway 64 area if not a little north of there.
 
I’ve been really busy so I haven’t been able to contribute much here the past few days, but I have to say that the 06z HRRR is one of the most shocking CAM runs I have ever seen, period. It's actually frightening, to the point where my jaw literally dropped. I'm struggling to think of anything in recent memory that is comparable.
 
Maxis_s said:
I'm trying to come up with the right words on what I'm thinking and my mind is just coming up blank. I couldn't imagine what it feels like for someone who lives there.
I pray this doesn't happen.
Click to expand...
To me, it feels like the largest sense of dread has been strapped to my back and only the sunrise on Sunday will take it back. Every helicity run has shown a large swath right over my parents house on the AL-TN border. I know that isn't the gospel, but it is the idea that's horrifying.
 
Now NWS Paducah is using strong, LONG-TRACKED tornado wording for tonight. First time I can recall maybe ver seeing them bring out the strong long-tracked wording the morning of an event, the last decade anyway. I believe they didn't use such wording til the evening of the December 2021 event.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top