Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[OhOkayThen]

Wow not
Much change just yet. SPC little complacency seems

My only thinking is it didn't expand much further East due to timing? Since it will be early am once it gets past the moderate, that's pushing out of that D1 time-frame? Only thing I can think of. Tornadic threat has undoubtedly increased to the ESE

 

[Maxis_s]

I will say, that's one hell of a moderate risk.

 

[Brice W]

Small 15% hatched in the new D1.
Mentions the possibility of "several strong tornadoes"

took my cat nap. that’s quite the wording for a small 15% tornado risk.

Edit: took a closer look, and honestly that’s a decent area of coverage. Can see this being a major problem.

 

[OhOkayThen]

took my cat nap. that’s quite the wording for a small 15% tornado risk.

I doubt it's that small come this afternoon

 

[Kds86z]

took my cat nap. that’s quite the wording for a small 15% tornado risk.

Seems the southern tornado risk is still uncertain but…

 

[Brice W]

Seems the southern tornado risk is still uncertain but…

Mainly I think it’s because of the coverage, either there will be 2-3 supercells or nothing hardly at all.

 

[Maxis_s]

I'm interested in what the wording will be for the Day 2 outlook. I'm pretty sure it won't initially be a high risk but it'll be damn close to it.

 

[Kds86z]

Mainly I think it’s because of the coverage, either there will be 2-3 supercells or nothing hardly at all.

“Even so, isolated severe supercells are likely “ and into the overnight..not good

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Correct me if I am wrong but I was looking at moisture content and the dewooints were pretty low for tomorrow in the Moderate Risk area.

 

[Brice W]

I'm interested in what the wording will be for the Day 2 outlook. I'm pretty sure it won't initially be a high risk but it'll be damn close to it.

If it’s not with this D2 outlook, expect one the next update.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

took my cat nap. that’s quite the wording for a small 15% tornado risk.

Edit: took a closer look, and honestly that’s a decent area of coverage. Can see this being a major problem.

Honestly thought be larger. Maybe later today

 

[Maxis_s]

Correct me if I am wrong but I was looking at moisture content and the dewooints were pretty low for tomorrow in the Moderate Risk area.

Yeah, there is a noticeable T/Td spread, but it should be sufficient for damaging winds and tornadoes, likely aided by strong instability and shear if I were to guess. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Maxis_s]

Day 2 updated... we'll see in a moment what they decided on.

 

[Kds86z]

Broyles.. day 2

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

 

[Maxis_s]

Kept at MDT. Mentions a tornado outbreak in the wording.
"MULTIPLE LONG-TRACK HIGH-END TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE."
Uh oh.

 

[Brice W]

yikes..

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Correct me if I am wrong but I was looking at moisture content and the dewooints were pretty low for tomorrow in the Moderate Risk area.

Well I looked at them and the dewpoints are around 55.0°F TO 60.0°F with temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. It could be somewhat conditional on what others said.

 

[Brice W]

I’ve never seen any wording like that before.

 

[Maxis_s]

I'm surprised at no mention of a possible upgrade, but the wording tells me everything I need to know.