Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[KevinH]

the new day 2 outlooks will be very interesting indeed

2am ET

 

[TheSuckZone]

00Z HRRR is up to bat

 

[tornado examiner]

L O A D I N G O M I N O U S L Y

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I am trying nto catch up from a busy afternoon....did I miss anything? I saw the last frame of the 18z hrr which looked very concerning.

Not much, seems like the 21z RAP and 18z HRRR sped things up a tiny bit making it a better parameter space for portions of Alabama, than what the NAM showed. I'm really wanting to see the WRF 00Z run.

 

[JayF]

As we go through the next couple of days, remember that weather will be our focus, helping people see the coming storms. Let us not berate or downgrade each other, but have civil debate on what the models and radars say, if you disagree with someone, that is ok. If you must point out your disagreement, do it respectfully.

-Jay

 

[Maxis_s]

Not sure about the reliability of this model, or comparisons to other events, but wow.

NCAR AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecasts

 

[Maxis_s]

00z HRRR has storm initiation on the northern mode on Friday by 21z.

 

[Mike S]

Brad Travis from WAFF posted this a few minutes ago. Helicity tracks between 2pm and 6pm Saturday.

 

[KevinH]

As we go through the next couple of days, remember that weather will be our focus, helping people see the coming storms. Let us not berate or downgrade each other, but have civil debate on what the models and radars say, if you disagree with someone, that is ok. If you must point out your disagreement, do it respectfully.

-Jay

yeah @Clancy! lol

 

[warneagle]

Brad Travis from WAFF posted this a few minutes ago. Helicity tracks between 2pm and 6pm Saturday.
View attachment 35369

to quote the one guy in the April 27th thread, this is gonna be a character-builder

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

00z HRRR has storm initiation on the northern mode on Friday by 21z.

No cap issues there ….

 

[Maxis_s]

Intense UH tracks from these semi-discrete cells. Looks like the line begins to break up as far north as southern Illinois at around 03z.

 

[brianc33710]

Wild that 04/27/11 didnt have a high risk D2

No, the SPC had questions about how the morning convection would affect the afternoon outbreak. As it was, much of TN & all of KY was spared by lingering rainfall.

 

[MortgageMan]

Beware the Ides of March!

 

[ColdFront]

Brad Travis from WAFF posted this a few minutes ago. Helicity tracks between 2pm and 6pm Saturday.
View attachment 35369

Even the models know about sand mountain magic

 

[ColdFront]

This run looks rough for western KY.

 

[LoopingHodos]

Wasn’t cookville ef-4 (2020) under a slight risk? Like on the edge of it?

Marginal

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This run looks rough for western KY.

Afraid west tn going be freaking caped little

 

[Mr. Clark]

Brad Travis from WAFF posted this a few minutes ago. Helicity tracks between 2pm and 6pm Saturday.
View attachment 35369

I like Brad, but I'm not sure that's a good map for broadcast Mets to send out to the public. Folks here know what that map means, but most folks on the street don't. They will see that and think Brad is predicting a big tornado through South Huntsville, but it'll be fine in Madison.

Brad would never say that, but that doesn't mean folks won't think he said it.

 

[tornado examiner]

15% sig tornado risk…will likely be issued for Friday. Imo