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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
tornado examiner
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- 2,227
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- texas
100 pages reached before the event. What
- Messages
- 899
- Location
- Iowa
I'm specifically talking about the STP when it's shown through the HRRR. It has gone completely off the charts about 4 or 5 times in the last 12 months. The other models aren't having the same issues.
Thank you for this. I'll try to verify the correct math is happening with this system when the HRRR starts producing STP.
Just what I was saying!
- Messages
- 899
- Location
- Iowa
Got it. thank you for the clarification!
KevinH
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- 2,511
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- West Central GA
I believe @JPWX stated that ALL of eastern Alabama and ALL of Western GA will be under similar threats (super cells), and Eastern Georgia will be under a QLCS threat. I think? The D3 update at 3:30p ET will be able to give us more of an idea. So will the D2 update for the same time period tomorrow at 2a ET.
Would you agree @JPWX and @Fred Gossage (and any other MET that I can’t remember right now lol)
wx_guy
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Yeah WeatherBell STP is always inflated and click bait y. STP by the calculations most people use should basically be between 0 and 8 most of the time.
akt1985
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- 1,219
- Location
- Madison, Alabama
The SPC has outlined a lot of Virginia, and the I-95 corridor, for severe thunderstorms on Sunday.
I recall seeing that on TWC (calling for a possiblity of Severe T-Storms), by chance is there any tornado threat by then?
- Messages
- 2,832
- Location
- Smithville MS
I do. However there's still many questions about the squall line and storm mode
AFD from FFC
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Key Messages:
- Severe weather is expected across North and Central Georgia
Saturday evening into Sunday. All modes of severe weather are
possible: damaging winds, tornadoes, and severe hail. A
significant tornado (EF-2 or greater) is also possible.
- Forecast rainfall amounts for Friday Night through Sunday
range between 2-3" across North Georgia and 1-2" elsewhere. A
Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 4) for flash flooding exists for
North Georgia during this timeframe.
Forecast:
A very strong storm system will bring severe storms to much of the
Southeast between Friday night and Sunday afternoon. We have
consistently seen a notable signal for a strong wind component
through the atmospheric column as well as energy (fuel) -- thus, the
overlap of these two supports the threat for severe weather for us
in North and Central Georgia. Timing primarily lies between Saturday
evening through Sunday afternoon with that threat moving from west
to east as the front pushes the line of storms through the state.
As a general overview, at the start of the long term (Saturday
morning), there could be some rain and storms ongoing and/or
diminishing across parts of Northwest Georgia. The Marginal Risk
area (Level 1 out of 5) as painted by SPC, is to account for any
severe thunderstorms that are able to maintain themselves as they
enter into our northwest zones early Saturday morning in response to
the initial wave of energy swinging through the TN Valley.
Damaging winds look to be the primary threat with any severe
thunderstorms that move through northwest Georgia early Saturday
morning.
Moving into the day on Saturday, a strengthening upper low will be
forced eastward as a second piece of energy rotates around the base
of the broader upper trough. At the surface, a cold front will be
tracking eastward across the ArkLaMiss towards the TN Valley. This
will result in notable height falls, a strengthening LLJ (60+ kts),
and allow for ample moisture to stream into the region bringing up
our dewpoints from south to north during the day. Thunderstorms
accompanying a cold front will move through Saturday night into
Sunday afternoon. Storms look to finally clear our southeast zones
by Sunday evening. As we are becoming more into the range of some of
the higher resolution model guidance there are a few things to note:
1- there are some 'weakening' trends with the line of storms as it
moves eastward through our area overnight Saturday into Sunday.
However, all severe threats will still be in play across all of our
forecast area so don't let your guard down! The wind energy and
other ingredients that have been noted with this system will still
be present. As we know nocturnal severe events are especially
hazardous -- so please make sure you have appropriate weather safety
plans in place.
2- overall timing of when we can expect severe weather to move
through the state continues to be refined. Some hi-res guidance has
storms moving into northwest and west-central Georgia as early as 6-
8PM Saturday. However, current thinking is still a little later 8-
10PM at the earliest.
3- a prior uncertainty was if ongoing convection Friday into
Saturday morning would contaminate the environment heading into
Saturday. At least for now this does not appear to be the case. But
we are keeping that possibility in the back of our minds. Adding on
to the previous point, there is a possibility that some portions of
our area (southwest, west-central GA) clear out mid-morning
Saturday. If that's the case the atmosphere would have some time to
recover as moisture continues to stream into the state.
At this time SPC maintains an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for
areas roughly along and west of a line from Athens to Macon down to
Americus. Also within this Enhanced Area is a hatched area
indicating a greater probability of significant severe weather
occurring (i.e. large hail, significant damaging winds, and strong
tornadoes). In addition to severe hazards, the flooding threat
overnight Saturday into Sunday remains. With this forecast update,
forecast storm total rainfall for the duration of this event from
Friday overnight through Sunday is largely unchanged. Totals for
North Georgia range from 2-3" with 1-2" elsewhere. The time window
for the highest flood threat is late Saturday evening to Sunday
morning. These totals are fairly modest, though any training of
thunderstorms over a specific area and multiple rounds of rainfall
throughout the weekend could result in minor flash flooding and/or
local river flood concerns. WPC maintains a Slight Risk (Level 2 out
of 4) for North Georgia on Saturday.
Finally, a PSA: Please start making and communicating your severe
weather plans now! Know where your safe place is, ensure your
weather radio is in working order, and consider your plans if they
involve being outdoors. With much of the action taking place
overnight (Saturday evening into Sunday morning) it is vital that
you remain weather aware. Be prepared not scared!
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Key Messages:
- Severe weather is expected across North and Central Georgia
Saturday evening into Sunday. All modes of severe weather are
possible: damaging winds, tornadoes, and severe hail. A
significant tornado (EF-2 or greater) is also possible.
- Forecast rainfall amounts for Friday Night through Sunday
range between 2-3" across North Georgia and 1-2" elsewhere. A
Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 4) for flash flooding exists for
North Georgia during this timeframe.
Forecast:
A very strong storm system will bring severe storms to much of the
Southeast between Friday night and Sunday afternoon. We have
consistently seen a notable signal for a strong wind component
through the atmospheric column as well as energy (fuel) -- thus, the
overlap of these two supports the threat for severe weather for us
in North and Central Georgia. Timing primarily lies between Saturday
evening through Sunday afternoon with that threat moving from west
to east as the front pushes the line of storms through the state.
As a general overview, at the start of the long term (Saturday
morning), there could be some rain and storms ongoing and/or
diminishing across parts of Northwest Georgia. The Marginal Risk
area (Level 1 out of 5) as painted by SPC, is to account for any
severe thunderstorms that are able to maintain themselves as they
enter into our northwest zones early Saturday morning in response to
the initial wave of energy swinging through the TN Valley.
Damaging winds look to be the primary threat with any severe
thunderstorms that move through northwest Georgia early Saturday
morning.
Moving into the day on Saturday, a strengthening upper low will be
forced eastward as a second piece of energy rotates around the base
of the broader upper trough. At the surface, a cold front will be
tracking eastward across the ArkLaMiss towards the TN Valley. This
will result in notable height falls, a strengthening LLJ (60+ kts),
and allow for ample moisture to stream into the region bringing up
our dewpoints from south to north during the day. Thunderstorms
accompanying a cold front will move through Saturday night into
Sunday afternoon. Storms look to finally clear our southeast zones
by Sunday evening. As we are becoming more into the range of some of
the higher resolution model guidance there are a few things to note:
1- there are some 'weakening' trends with the line of storms as it
moves eastward through our area overnight Saturday into Sunday.
However, all severe threats will still be in play across all of our
forecast area so don't let your guard down! The wind energy and
other ingredients that have been noted with this system will still
be present. As we know nocturnal severe events are especially
hazardous -- so please make sure you have appropriate weather safety
plans in place.
2- overall timing of when we can expect severe weather to move
through the state continues to be refined. Some hi-res guidance has
storms moving into northwest and west-central Georgia as early as 6-
8PM Saturday. However, current thinking is still a little later 8-
10PM at the earliest.
3- a prior uncertainty was if ongoing convection Friday into
Saturday morning would contaminate the environment heading into
Saturday. At least for now this does not appear to be the case. But
we are keeping that possibility in the back of our minds. Adding on
to the previous point, there is a possibility that some portions of
our area (southwest, west-central GA) clear out mid-morning
Saturday. If that's the case the atmosphere would have some time to
recover as moisture continues to stream into the state.
At this time SPC maintains an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for
areas roughly along and west of a line from Athens to Macon down to
Americus. Also within this Enhanced Area is a hatched area
indicating a greater probability of significant severe weather
occurring (i.e. large hail, significant damaging winds, and strong
tornadoes). In addition to severe hazards, the flooding threat
overnight Saturday into Sunday remains. With this forecast update,
forecast storm total rainfall for the duration of this event from
Friday overnight through Sunday is largely unchanged. Totals for
North Georgia range from 2-3" with 1-2" elsewhere. The time window
for the highest flood threat is late Saturday evening to Sunday
morning. These totals are fairly modest, though any training of
thunderstorms over a specific area and multiple rounds of rainfall
throughout the weekend could result in minor flash flooding and/or
local river flood concerns. WPC maintains a Slight Risk (Level 2 out
of 4) for North Georgia on Saturday.
Finally, a PSA: Please start making and communicating your severe
weather plans now! Know where your safe place is, ensure your
weather radio is in working order, and consider your plans if they
involve being outdoors. With much of the action taking place
overnight (Saturday evening into Sunday morning) it is vital that
you remain weather aware. Be prepared not scared!
brianc33710
Member
A couple of things. The 2 March 2021 severe weather outbreaks that affected large parts SE US were probably the last things to draw this much interest. Also, a Day 3 Enhanced is still VERY Serious so far in advance so don't downplay not being in MOD! Finally the Cordova EF4 was the tornado that had maxed out (at least when read by Spann's radar) 17.5 STP. I think Cullman EF4 was 12.4 1 hr before hitting downtown. I had thought Tuscaloosa EF4 & Hackelberg-Phil Campbell-Athens EF5 were over 10 though.
maboyes
Member
- Messages
- 2
- Location
- Lenoir City TN
Thank you so much! I am watching local and definitely listening to ya'll!!
Bamamuscle
Member
- Messages
- 137
- Location
- Meridianville, AL
I just spoke with a few of my coworkers and they had no clue about Friday night here in Limestone County AL.
Equus
Member
It looks like only seven other threads on the entire weather portion of the site after its 2017 revival have hit this many replies, and we're still two days off; going to make a run for the top tier