• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

I’m grasping at straws here, but believe it or not this still has a chance to downtrend into a far less significant threat.

It’s important to keep in mind that’s this event is still beyond the crucial 48hour mark. Which is when cams truly begin to hone in and properly analyze the environment.

Once this event gets within the 48hour mark, (hrrr and wrf model ranges) and the kinematics still look like this or continue to uptrend then it will be appropriate to push the big red button regarding if a moderate or perhaps a high risk can be issued.
 
Honestly hoping the SPC jumps straight to high risk for the day 3 outlook tomorrow. Get people talking about it at work before they go into their own little bubbles for the weekend. The consequences of the models being right and warning too late are higher than the consequences of warning too early and being wrong. It's that type of weather event.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Honestly hoping the SPC jumps straight to high risk for the day 3 outlook tomorrow. Get people talking about it at work before they go into their own little bubbles for the weekend. The consequences of the models being right and warning too late are higher than the consequences of warning too early and being wrong. It's that type of weather event.
Click to expand...
MDT is the highest they allow themselves to go on Day 3. Unless they break with that, but it's the highest that they normally allow for D3.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Honestly hoping the SPC jumps straight to high risk for the day 3 outlook tomorrow. Get people talking about it at work before they go into their own little bubbles for the weekend. The consequences of the models being right and warning too late are higher than the consequences of warning too early and being wrong. It's that type of weather event.
Click to expand...
Unless they've changed things very recently, D3 only goes as high as MDT.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Honestly hoping the SPC jumps straight to high risk for the day 3 outlook tomorrow. Get people talking about it at work before they go into their own little bubbles for the weekend. The consequences of the models being right and warning too late are higher than the consequences of warning too early and being wrong. It's that type of weather event.
Click to expand...
That is unrealistic to happen.
 
jiharris0220 said:
I’m grasping at straws here, but believe it or not this still has a chance to downtrend into a far less significant threat.

It’s important to keep in mind that’s this event is still beyond the crucial 48hour mark. Which is when cams truly begin to hone in and properly analyze the environment.

Once this event gets within the 48hour mark, (hrrr and wrf model ranges) and the kinematics still look like this or continue to uptrend then it will be appropriate to push the big red button regarding if a moderate or perhaps a high risk can be issued.
Click to expand...
Possible, sure. Unlikely. Fred has already said as much.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Honestly hoping the SPC jumps straight to high risk for the day 3 outlook tomorrow. Get people talking about it at work before they go into their own little bubbles for the weekend. The consequences of the models being right and warning too late are higher than the consequences of warning too early and being wrong. It's that type of weather event.
Click to expand...
This will not happen. I wouldn’t expect that until Friday night maybe.
 
SPC can go Moderate at Day 3 and High Risk as far out as Day 2.
 
wx_guy said:
MDT is the highest they allow themselves to go on Day 3. Unless they break with that, but it's the highest that they normally allow for D3.
Click to expand...
Clancy said:
Unless they've changed things very recently, D3 only goes as high as MDT.
Click to expand...
JPWX said:
SPC can go Moderate at Day 3 and High Risk as far out as Day 2.
Click to expand...

So they should change it. Even if it's just for this one storm. This isn't a moderate risk anymore, especially for Mississippi (who will be hit hard early). The F5 that struck Candlestick Park, MS 03/03/1966 killed 58 people because it hit a shopping mall. We have higher certainty about these things than we did 20 years ago. We can go above moderate.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
So they should change it. Even if it's just for this one storm. This isn't a moderate risk anymore, especially for Mississippi (who will be hit hard early). The F5 that struck Candlestick Park, MS 03/03/1966 killed 58 people because it hit a shopping mall. We have higher certainty about these things than we did 20 years ago. We can go above moderate.
Click to expand...
while this is true for higher certainty. I think you’re jumping on the train too soon, we don’t even have the small scaled details models. We also have to take account into the last event too. While this looks amazing. We truly don’t have any idea until the D2 or D1 outlook.
 
Brice W said:
while this is true for higher certainty. I think you’re jumping on the train too soon, we don’t even have the small scaled details models. We also have to take account into the last event too. While this looks amazing. We truly don’t have any idea until the D2 or D1 outlook.
Click to expand...
The last event never stood a chance to do what this event is projected to do. Not even at its highest projected potential. When was the last time the models showed something like this 3 days out?
 
i don’t think it’s bureaucratic so much as it is there is a strategy to messaging the general public. if you sound the alert too early when there’s less consensus and a greater variety of possible outcomes and things don’t come to fruition, you lose some percentage of listeners who take the next threat less serious.

and on and on and on.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top