Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Shakespeare 2016]

What is so scary about violent tornadoes is once they hit about mid to high-end EF4+ intensity surviving above ground becomes much more difficult than being in a basement or an underground shelter.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

00z NAM shows a meso low forming in NW MS

 

[Tyler Penland]

One thing that stands out to me over here in GA is the distinct lack of any type of CAD airmass, with the exception of possibly the very far northeastern part of the state but I'm not at all sold on that even existing. That is very rare for March.

The flow off the FL peninsula does keep a stream of mid/upper-50s DPs over the central part of the state but those erode after dark through the wee hours of Saturday, and honestly the temperature differences there could enhance any supercells that move into it anyways.

 

[cg9450]

What is so scary about violent tornadoes is once you hit about mid to high-end EF4+ intensity surviving above ground becomes much more difficult than being in a basement or an underground shelter.

More of a “get out of the way if you can” situation

 

[Maxis_s]

00z NAM shows a meso low forming in NW MS

985mb, holy cow

 

[Clancy]

One thing that stands out to me over here in GA is the distinct lack of any type of CAD airmass, with the exception of possibly the very far northeastern part of the state but I'm not at all sold on that even existing. That is very rare for March.

The flow off the FL peninsula does keep a stream of mid/upper-50s DPs over the central part of the state but those erode after dark through the wee hours of Saturday, and honestly the temperature differences there could enhance any supercells that move into it anyways.

Most certainly. Rare creature, this setup, with regard to Georgian thermodynamics. Even some of our biggest events in recent memory had pretty pronounced wedges. No such thing here.

 

[Ledian]

I don’t think i’ve ever been as nervous about the leadup to a severe weather outbreak impacting my area like i have been with this one. Please…stop uptrending.

 

[andyhb]

NAM remains extremely dangerous across MS into AL. High end event both during the day and nocturnally.

 

[TornadoFan]

Alright, question: What is a mesolow?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

NAM remains extremely dangerous across MS into AL. High end event both during the day and nocturnally.

West Tennessee look like u Andy. Still good threat for tornadoes night?

 

[Tyler Penland]

Most certainly. Rare creature, this setup, with regard to Georgian thermodynamics. Even some of our biggest events in recent memory had pretty pronounced wedges. No such thing here.

Wedge boundaries have been responsible for quite a few spin-ups north of Atlanta over the years. Rarely significant, but they can catch folks by surprise.

I mean, how is this MARCH?

 

[KCweatherboy]

The HRW FV3 Supercell printer is most definitely turned on. Shows supercells Friday night in IL/KY/IN and even down into TN/MS/AL and has a clutter-free MS/AL by the time the run ends at 12z Saturday.



Edit: Also has 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE across a lot of MS by the time the model runs ends at 12z Saturday, which is more than most models

 

[Clancy]

That just looks disgusting for MS and AL.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Something I believe Spann had mentioned at one point: if any of y'all know you'll need to travel to get to a shelter, and don't want/aren't able to go to a shelter until relatively shortly before a threat arrives, arrange for transportation plans ahead of time. Likewise, if you know someone, a family member or community member, who might not have transportation, I would offer a ride, if you're able.

The speed at which these storms will be moving is making me awfully nervous. There won't be a lot of time to be messing around getting to shelter.

 

[MMWX]

What is so scary about violent tornadoes is once they hit about mid to high-end EF4+ intensity surviving above ground becomes much more difficult than being in a basement or an underground shelter.

Most homes in the mid-south don't have basements either, at least in my neck of the woods.

 

[JPWX]

I know the answer to this, but just wanted to ask it on here. Even without a secondary low, this threat remains higher end. Am I correct in that thinking?

 

[JPWX]

Most homes in the mid-south don't have basements either, at least in my neck of the woods.

True. I only know a handful of people who have basements. I didn't when I lived in my old house.

 

[cg9450]

Most homes in the mid-south don't have basements either, at least in my neck of the woods.

And, are probably modular/concrete block foundation. My rental doesn't even have a central room.

 

[Clancy]

Most homes in the mid-south don't have basements either, at least in my neck of the woods.

A common problem with ranch-style homes here in Georgia. In new houses, a lot of mostly siding-based construction.

 

[Kds86z]

Most homes in the mid-south don't have basements either, at least in my neck of the woods.

Yep. MS is the #1 most dangerous state to live in for tornadoes. Highest fatalities. I saw the statistical map.