Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

 

[MattPetrulli]

View attachment 35215
Roch got this masterclass of a sounding in Bassfield, MS 14z

This isn't a public thing to share. Please delete this.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

This isn't a public thing to share. Please delete this.

didn't know abt that mb, ik for a fact he won't drop more runs cuz twisted peps are everywhere and doesn't want to repeat what he did last week type deal

 

[MattPetrulli]

? I think the public has every right to see short range model runs/soundings.

It's a privately run simulation, of which the owner does not want public.

 

[ColdFront]

It's a privately run simulation, of which the owner does not want public.

Is this on some sort of private server?

 

[jiharris0220]

It's a privately run simulation, of which the owner does not want public.

Oh, well in that case, I’ll retract my statement.

 

[warneagle]

You can really see the Euro’s EML overturning issues along with the bloated updraft initiations.

And yet, even despite that, there’s still a largely discrete mode being modeled.

Not good.

Probably not a great sign when the model that’s predicting a possible failure mode starts printing supercells anyway.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Dew points don't have to be above 60 degrees for there to be problems. There are plenty of strong and even violent tornadoes such as the Winterset, Iowa EF4 that have occurred with dewpoints under 60. Due to the presence of cold air aloft, there is plenty of CAPE available in these areas with lower than 60s dewpoints which is more than enough for storms to work with.

That's why I've been concerned with this northern area too, because if models are under-forecasting dewpoints and moisture depth even a little bit, there's plenty of energy for storms to work with so they won't get ripped apart by the shear.

The average temperature and dewpoint when the Tri-State 1925 tornado was occuring was likely around 65.0°F/59.0°F. Another example would be the Crittenden, KY EF4 tornado. The temperature was 57.0°F and the dewpoint was 55.0°F.

 

[JPWX]

What does weather look like for MS this weekend?

I just got asked this question after I told this same person that it's looking bad across both MS and Alabama earlier this afternoon.

I'm just gonna smile and let it slide off

 

[Clancy]

What does weather look like for MS this weekend?

I just got asked this question after I told this same person that it's looking bad across both MS and Alabama earlier this afternoon.

I'm just gonna smile and let it slide off

A smile of pain and suffering, surely.

 

[JPWX]

A smile of pain and suffering, surely.

You got that right!

 

[Brice W]

What does weather look like for MS this weekend?

I just got asked this question after I told this same person that it's looking bad across both MS and Alabama earlier this afternoon.

I'm just gonna smile and let it slide off

Snow

 

[Bulkshear]

You got that right!

What does weather look like for MS this weekend?

I just got asked this question after I told this same person that it's looking bad across both MS and Alabama earlier this afternoon.

I'm just gonna smile and let it slide off

Sun and clouds with the occasional wedge

 

[Maxis_s]

10,000 hours in ms paint

 

[Ledian]

What does weather look like for MS this weekend?

I just got asked this question after I told this same person that it's looking bad across both MS and Alabama earlier this afternoon.

I'm just gonna smile and let it slide off

It'll be raining pancakes

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

View attachment 35232
10,000 hours in ms paint

Send the last two my way. Just kidding!!

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

View attachment 35232
10,000 hours in ms paint

can I send this funni to a server or nah?

 

[Maxis_s]

can I send this funni to a server or nah?

Spread the laughter, I guess

 

[AJS]

Really nervous for what could be in store this weekend. Have some friends in the target area for both systems and it has me really worried.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

wellp