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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Clancy said:
Would definitely advocate for a better pallette for the dews for WxBell, a lil hard to make out the 60+ zone!
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Won't disagree with you at all. I use WxBell because I get it for free through an internship, but PW has it beat in pallette and convenience of use.
 
So I tweaked my distance-finding algorithm using the SARS Sounding Analog database a bit more. My goal is to provide helpful analogs beyond the brute force method Sharppy-based methods currently do (this includes Pivotal Weather soundings and most soundings I see are Sharppy-based, including the official ones on the SPC website). I also made the output more user-friendly.


So this is based on a sounding near Tuscaloosa Saturday afternoon on the 18z GFS. These are the Top 5 analogs from soundings in the SARS database.

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18Z Euro shows a pristine trough bringing in multiple rounds of intense severe weather potential. Advertises a strong, mixed-mode morning round, especially across Alabama, supported by the parent low moving into the Great Lakes, which will provide ample shear and moderate instability. That activity may last into the early afternoon. A brief lull may follow. By late afternoon, a new cluster of severe convection will form over MS and move eastward with time, in union with the incoming new trough and LLJ, which will aid moisture return and instability. Notably, it has a fairly extensive corridor of 1,000+ CAPE that lasts late into the overnight and early morning hours Sunday across Alabama into Georgia. This would be capable of supporting both a likely broken QLCS and anything that might develop out ahead of it.
1741746818862.png1741746853269.pngCODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2025031118-ECMWF-SE-prec-prec-78-114-100.gifCODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2025031118-ECMWF-SE-con-mucape-78-114-100.gif
 
TornadoFan17 said:
NAM shows slightly better moisture than the EURO/GFS does for Friday, but pretty weak CAPE values (<1000 J/kg).
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Significantly weaker than GFS for certain, but not normal NAM-level weak. Combine that with its cold bias and this still looks pretty concerning. Then again, NAM at the end of its range is about as reliable as me rolling out of bed at the right time in the morning, so probably not too wise to read deeply into it one way or the other.
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